MLB Playoffs 2019 – DFS Strategy for the October 11, 2019 single game slate.
Breaking down some of the top plays and strategies for attacking the MLB Playoff DFS slate on FanDuel & DraftKings.
The NLCS gets going tonight with the Cardinals and Nationals facing off in what was definitely an underdog match-up given their NLDS opponents.
Both of these guys have below-average strikeout rates on the year (7.3 and 7.0 per 9 respectively) and generally struggle in the hard contact departments (32% and 42% respectively in 2019).
Sanchez enjoyed a better season on the surface, with a 3.85 ERA – however had a 5.07 SIERA and 39% fly ball rate (11% HR/FB%) suggesting he could have been a lot less fortunate with the long ball.
Mikolas didn’t have quite as smooth of a 2019 as he enjoyed in 2018, with a 4.16 ERA (4.39 SIERA) but generally enjoyed a better BB/9 and SIERA vs ERA delta to help be more of who he was ‘supposed to be’.
From a DK showdown perspective, I wouldn’t rush to get either of these guys active. We could see some good offense here, even with a muted Vegas total.
The plus split to speak about are LHBs against Mikolas. Dating back to 2018, they have a .319 wOBA and 40.2% hard hit rate in the split. Both by far the highest of the 4 splits on the slate.
The worst split on the slate is Mikolas against RHBs, where he’s holding a stellar .267 wOBA.
Sanchez is fairly equal in the split department, but has a lower K/9 and higher opponent hard hit rate against RHBs than LHBs. The slight edge goes to the RvR nature of the STL lineup, which really works nicely in favor of Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna and even Paul DeJong.
The top bats on the slate in my eyes are Juan Soto, Goldy, Ozuna, DeJong, and Adam Eaton. I want tons of exposure to the first 3 names, and while Eaton has limited upside – he also has a solid floor in the plus-split and hitting near the top of the order for Washington most nights.
Keep in mind that the RvR nature of Mikolas (his strength) is generally something you will want to avoid – particularly if you think Trea Turner is going to be able to both get on base and use his speed. Yadier Molina will have something to say about that.
It wouldn’t surprise me if STL ends up taking game one here, and a 6-2 or 5-3 kind of game feels appropriate given how hittable both SPs are, and the advantaged nature of the STL match-up with Sanchez’s weaker spots.
Best of luck tonight!