MLB Playoffs 2019 – DFS Strategy for the October 10, 2019 single game slate.
Breaking down some of the top plays and strategies for attacking the MLB Playoff DFS slate on FanDuel & DraftKings.
The Thursday MLB DFS slate features just the one remaining ALDS match-up that needs a game 5 to decide who moves on.
It’s back to Houston for the Rays at Astros, with two dominant righties taking the mound for their respective teams.
Tyler Glasnow was very sharp in 4.1 innings of work in game 1 – giving up just four hits and a 2-run bomb to Jose Altuve. I say he was sharp, given the < 1.0 H/IP and fact it was really just one swing’s worth of a blemish against a dominant HOU lineup.
Gerrit Cole was incredible in his 7.2 innings against the Rays earlier this series. He had 15 Ks and allowed only 5 H+BB in that time. That’s now 29 Ks against the Rays in his last 2 times facing them.
The moral of the story here is that we’re likely to see Cole burned for as long as he’s going to be effective. If that’s 6, 7, 8 or 9 IP – he’s sure to be both dominant and in an elite spot given his raw skill and recent success against Tampa Bay.
The splits for these guys are actually quite interesting. Both feature what I would call pretty important reverse-splits to be aware of.
Glasnow has a .284 wOBA vs RHBs compared to a .266 mark against LHBs. He’s allowing 0.5 more HR/9 to righties than lefties, and a nearly 10% higher hard contact rate, too. That’s where you want to think about heavying-up exposure if you play the slate. Righties are both more talented on TB, but also more powerful and should have lower ownership.
Cole has a reverse split as well, but it’s not as dramatic. His .269 wOBA vs .243 wOBA (RHB and LHB respectively) are important to be aware of. He also has a higher K/9 against lefties (14.7) than righties (11.5). He generally allows a HR/9 to both sides, with no major delta worth calling out.
So, by the numbers, you want RHBs against Glasnow as your primary means for exposure, with LHBs being the next group I’d want to target. Sprinkling in with just about any Ray you like is fine as the stats suggest – and going RvR with Cole as the opponent is just fine.
Note – for DK Showdown slates, I do think you’ll want to have some exposure to Gerrit Cole. Not sure the Captain slot is where I would plug him in, but given this could be a low-scoring game with Cole hitting 12+ Ks with relative ease – he will most likely be a top 5 overall scorer.
Put it this way. If he does eclipse the 50+ DKP mark once again (certainly possible), the FC Cruncher Optimizer actually does like him for a Captain position – with a couple RPs at the $3K mark sprinkled in along with high exposure to the top half of the HOU lineup (Altuve, Springer, Brantley).
That will do it for today. Hope you enjoy what should be a great pitching match-up and are successful in your DFS adventures.
Best of luck tonight!