MLB Playoffs 2019 – DFS Strategy & Cheat Sheet for October 9, 2019
Breaking down some of the top plays and strategies for attacking the MLB Playoff DFS slate on FanDuel & DraftKings.
We have a nice little 2 game slate on Wednesday, with both NLDS series going to game 5.
DraftKings has priced down Flaherty and Foltynewicz here, to a point where you are going to have a really tough time fading Folty at $6K. You’re likely to see the majority of the field rostering one of the WAS/LAD and one of the STL/ATL pitchers here, especially based on price.
FanDuel sees Folty at $8,300 – $1,300 cheaper than Flaherty and $2,000 cheaper then Buehler.
From a win probability perspective, Vegas believes the Dodgers are your safest bet here (62%), with Buehler holding a 3.05 opponent total as well.
Folty’s 51% win probability and 3.95 opponent total should make him pretty popular on both sites, as a home favorite and not only throwing very well against them earlier this series (7 IP, 3 H, 7 K) – but also spinning 3 straight elite starts out of his final 4 regular season outings as well. Dollar for dollar, he’s the best SP on the slate since you can get all the elite bats you want in there against him.
From a pure talent perspective, as well as recent form considered, Flaherty and Strasburg enter the slate with 3.21 SIERAs or better in their last 6 starts, to go along with K/9s of 10.8 or higher in that time.
On the other side of that, Buehler has actually struggled and been in what you could say is the weakest recent form, with a 4.19 SIERA, 2.9 BB/9 and slate-high 38% opponent hard hit rate in his last 5 starts.
The way you go is totally up to you – but now you have some of the facts based on recent results and slate value to better make your decision(s).
We’re more or less splitting hairs here, as all SPs have very strong splits. However, here are some of the metrics that stand out to me the most:
- Folty struggles with the long ball against LHBs, giving up 1.33 per 9 in the split (the highest HR/9 of all 8 splits).
- Flaherty has the highest opponent hard hit rate in the split against LHBs, allowing a 396% HH% and 1.09 HR/9 to lefties since the start of 2018.
- Although all 4 pitchers are strong in their same-hand split, Folty’s xFIP of 3.75 and 38.1% hard hit rate are the two of the ‘softest’ for the respective split against RHBs.
- The other one to note is Buehler’s 39.5% hard hit rate against RHBs, even though a .261 wOBA suggests the results are often not catastrophic.
So, this is the kind of day that I’m expecting you’ll probably see a well-rounded lineup as the optimal approach, rather than a true game or team stack strategy winning out.
Based on the plus-split match-ups, the chalkier names will be:
- LHBs against Flaherty and Folty – especially because the game total is a full run higher than the other – Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Kolten Wong, Nick Markakis, Tommy Edman, Matt Joyce, Brian McCann, Dexter Fowler (high own% on DK expected), and maybe even Matt Carpenter (although probably lower own%)
- RHBs against Folty – Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong
- Although not chalky by the numbers, I do think you’ll want to have at least 3-4 pieces of exposure from the LAD/WAS match-up. A low game total doesn’t mean there will be minimal fantasy production. Both teams, LAD especially, have great power skills – so the long ball is certainly in play for the elite names.
Don’t count out the elite names like Cody Bellinger, Ronald Acuna, Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon. Turner and Acuna in particular are great at affecting the game in a number of ways, beyond just their bat (i.e. speed) and could see that play out nicely from a fantasy perspective.
Check out our cheat sheet below for other key plays we feel very good about on this slate.
$ Tier P C 1B 2B 3B SS OF High Stephen Strasburg (9.4k / 17.94) (10k / 31.96) Yadier Molina (3.9k / 6.73) (2.8k / 8.77) Paul Goldschmidt (4.9k / 9.71) (3.8k / 12.66) Ozzie Albies (4.7k / 8.83) (3.4k / 11.51) Anthony Rendon (4.8k / 8.17) (4.2k / 10.65) Trea Turner (4.9k / 8.26) (4.2k / 10.77) Marcell Ozuna (4.9k / 9.82) (3.9k / 12.80) Walker Buehler (9k / 24.32) (10.3k / 43.33) Max Muncy (4.5k / 9.47) (3.8k / 12.34) Tommy Edman (5k / 5.96) (3.1k / 7.78) Ronald Acuna (5.6k / 10.68) (4.2k / 13.92) Medium Jack Flaherty (7.4k / 18.61) (9.6k / 33.16) Freddie Freeman (4.6k / 9.26) (3.9k / 12.08) Kolten Wong (4k / 7.25) (2.5k / 9.45) Josh Donaldson (4.5k / 8.39) (3.2k / 10.94) Juan Soto (4.5k / 7.44) (3.7k / 9.71) Low Michael Foltynewicz (6k / 16.76) (8.3k / 29.87) Brian McCann (3.2k / 4.10) (2.5k / 5.34) Joc Pederson (4.2k / 8.44) (3.2k / 11.00) Matt Carpenter (4.1k / 5.99) (2.7k / 7.81) Paul DeJong (4.2k / 4.61) (2.8k / 6.01) Matt Joyce (3.2k / 0.47) (2.3k / 0.62) Dexter Fowler (3.7k / 7.36) (2.9k / 9.60) Nick Markakis (3.6k / 6.28) (2.8k / 8.18)
Best of luck out there!