Welcome to the FC Insights Running Back Targets Article. In this post, we will be breaking down our top options and plays at the RB position for each DFS week of the 2019-2020 NFL DFS season.
In this article, I am going to give you the top eight running backs in my personal model which uses a number of factors like Vegas total, match-up, salary, etc. Please note that just because a player is not in this article doesn’t mean that I don’t like them or that they are not in my player pool.
Last Weeks Results
Based off of DraftKings scoring
- Ezekiel Elliott (17.0 fantasy points, 2.1x value, RB12)
- Dalvin Cook (29.80 fantasy points, 3.5x value, RB4)
- David Johnson (10.60 fantasy points, 2.0x value, RB27)
- David Montgomery (29.50 fantasy points, 4.9x value, RB3)
- Aaron Jones (52.20 fantasy points, 8.8x value, RB1)
- Christian McCaffrey (50.70 fantasy points, 5.8x value, RB2)
- Sony Michel (21.30 fantasy points, 3.9x value, RB8)
- Alvin Kamara (16.92 fantasy points, 2.0x value, RB13)
Adrian Peterson ($5,300 FD, $4,500 DK)
I don’t actually want to roster Peterson this week but I also don’t see how you don’t roster him at his salary. There are two reasons why I believe you need to roster Peterson this week. The first is due to the fact the Redskins made a coaching change this week. The Redskins fired Jay Gruden and named Bill Callahan interim coach. Callahan has already stated that he didn’t feel the Redskins ran the ball enough to start the season and wants to run the ball 25 to 30 times at least this week. If that is truly the case then Peterson should be in line for 20 plus touches this week. The second reason I am all over Peterson is due to the match-up against the Dolphins. The Dolphins have been historically bad to start the season and struggle the most against the run. This season the Dolphins are allowing 175.8 rushing yards per game which is most in the NFL, have allowed seven rushing touchdowns which is tied for most in the NFL despite playing one fewer game than everyone else, and are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Chase Edmonds ($5,200 FD, $4,600 DK)
If David Johnson is able to play this week than I want no part of Edmonds. With that being said there is a great chance that Johnson is out this week and that makes Edmonds an elite value. With Johnson out, Edmonds would be in line for around 25 touches. This season Edmonds has exactly 25 touches with 19 of those being rushes. In those touches, Edmons has 127 rushing yards and a score, has 43 receiving yards and has produced 29 fantasy points. Now, I know we can’t count on those numbers carrying over for a full game but there is also a reason why they can’t especially in this match-up against the Falcons. The Falcons are allowing 120.8 rushing yards this season which ranks in the bottom half of the league and has allowed six rushing touchdowns which are one off the most in the league. The Falcons also traditionally struggle against pass-catching backs as they have allowed the most receptions to the position each of the past four seasons.
Mark Ingram ($7,500 FD, $6,600 DK)
If spending up for running back this week Ingram is by far my favorite even with Ingram’s blah start to the season. Ingram has only run for more than 75 yards in two of his three games this season but does have six rushing scores which is second-most in the NFL. This week I like Ingram to add to his touchdown total while also racking up over 100 yards rushing due to his elite match-up against the Bengals. The Bengals have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, most rushing touchdowns, and most fantasy points per game to the position this season.
Devonta Freeman ($6,600 FD, $5,800 DK)
If you look at Freeman’s rushing numbers this season you are going to be scared to roster him as they have been bad. Freeman has only rushed for over 30 yards once this season. With that being said I am ignoring the rushing numbers for Freeman for a couple of reasons. The first is Freeman has been involved in the Falcons dangerous passing game. Freeman has at least three catches in each game this season and over the past two weeks, he has 13 catches for 112 yards and a score on 14 targets. That involvement in the passing game has allowed Freeman to produce 18 fantasy points in back-to-back weeks. The second reason is due to the match-up against the Cardinals. The Cardinals are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game this season.
Le’Veon Bell ($6,800 FD, $6,400 DK)
Bell has only rushed for 78 yards over the past two games after rushing for at least 60 yards in each of the first two games but that doesn’t bother me for several reasons this week. The first of those reasons is Bell despite the lack of rushing yards has still managed to produce double-digit fantasy points in each game due to his ability to contribute in the passing game. Bell has at least four catches in each game this season. The second reason is due to the likely return of Sam Darnold. With Darnold back, the Jets passing game should be a billion times better which will only open things up for Bell. The last reason is due to the match-up against the Cowboys. This season the Cowboys have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns, second-most receptions to running backs and fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Granted most of the rushing touchdowns and fantasy points allowed were last week to Aaron Jones as Jones had four rushing touchdowns and 52.2 fantasy points in that game.
Derrick Henry ($6,700 FD, $6,100 DK)
I rarely roster Henry as he rarely catches a pass and I want my running backs to have pass-catching upside as well. With that being said this is a week I want exposure to Henry. Henry has at least 15 carries in each game this season with back-to-back games with at least 20 carries. Henry is not just getting enough touches to make me forget about his lack of catches but he is also producing with at least 78 yards rushing in four of his five games, at least one touchdown in four of his five games, and double-digit fantasy points in each game. Henry should have similar production this week against a Broncos team that ranks in the bottom ten in both rushing yards allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game to running backs.
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500 FD, $8,500 DK)
Elliott killed all my hopes and dreams last week as I played him in most of my lineups over Christian McCaffrey. Last week is last week and in DFS you have to put that out of your mind and only focus on this week and Elliott is by far one of the safest running backs on this slate. Elliott has at least 17 fantasy points in each of the four games he was not limited this season and has over 20 total touches in three of the four games. This week we should expect similar numbers from Elliott even in a below-average match-up against the Jets. With that being said I don’t feel Elliott is anywhere close to a must-play this week in any format.
Leonard Fournette ($7,300 FD, $6,700 DK)
Fournette has been the true definition of a bell-cow running back this season especially over the past two weeks. In those two games, Fournette has 52 carries for 333 yards and a score. Fournette has also added six receptions for 49 yards on ten targets. This week we should expect Fournette to have the ball in his hands a lot once again though I do expect he comes back to earth against a Saints team that has only allowed one running back to rush for over 65 yards this season and is allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.