MLB Playoffs 2019 – DFS Strategy & Cheat Sheet for October 6, 2019
Breaking down some of the top plays and strategies for attacking the MLB Playoff DFS slate on FanDuel & DraftKings.
We have only 2 games on the Sunday MLB DFS slate once again, with some good single game and full roster (2 game) slates to participate in if you’re a baseball junkie like me.
Both of these games are expected to be fairly tightly contested with minimal win probabilities on either side, and 8.0 run totals for both.
The most significant game for hitting exposure, by the numbers, is ATL/STL. Especially when you look at the more extreme splits.
Over the last 2 seasons, Adam Wainwright has allowed a .359 wOBA, 5.15 xFIP, 40% hard hit rate and 1.55 HR/9 to lefties. He’s been better against righties (.301 wOBA, 3.76 xFIP, 0.83 HR/9).
Mike Soroka has been basically unhittable against righties, with LHBs also having far more success in the hard contact, wOBA and long ball departments. His match-up is sneaky positive based on the splits for opposing hitters and the lineup expected – as there really isn’t a ton of LHB power in the STL lineup.
ATL bats, followed by STL bats, are premium targets for stacking (particularly on the LHB side).
Hyun-Jin Ryu had an incredible 2019 season, and fares well against both LHBs and RHBs, with LHBs actually having more power metrics against him (1.11 HR/9 vs 0.81 HR/9). I’d recommend 1-2 pieces of exposure against him, max.
Max Scherzer is the true wild card of this slate. After making a surprise relief experience on Friday, he’s still scheduled to start on Sunday – but it’s not a sure thing. If he does suit up, he becomes the chalk SP on the slate in my eyes given the K% – but if Anibal Sanchez gets the ball for example, that drastically swings the game in LAD’s favor. Should Sanchez get a long look, you’ll want exposure to RHBs against him at minimum.
Here’s a look at the full breakdown (cheat sheet-style) for the Sunday docket. Hope you enjoy and are successful in your DFS investments!
$ Tier P C1B 2B 3B SS OF High Max Scherzer (10.1k / 23.77) (11k / 42.41) Freddie Freeman (4.5k / 11.46) (4.2k / 14.94) Max Muncy (4.6k / 12.53) (3.6k / 16.34) Anthony Rendon (4.6k / 10.19) (4.4k / 13.28) Trea Turner (5k / 10.41) (4.2k / 13.58) Cody Bellinger (4.9k / 14.37) (4.5k / 18.73) Hyun-Jin Ryu (8.9k / 14.62) (10.3k / 26.05) Ronald Acuna (5.5k / 12.78) (4.2k / 16.66) Medium Mike Soroka (7.5k / 12.84) (8.7k / 22.88) Paul Goldschmidt (4k / 9.25) (3.8k / 12.06) Ozzie Albies (4.4k / 10.28) (3.4k / 13.40) Josh Donaldson (4.2k / 10.14) (3.5k / 13.23) Corey Seager (4k / 9.90) (3.2k / 12.91) Joc Pederson (4.4k / 11.77) (3.3k / 15.34) Marcell Ozuna (4.3k / 9.37) (3.6k / 12.21) Low Howie Kendrick (4.1k / 6.93) (2.7k / 9.03) Gavin Lux (3.2k / 5.95) (2.7k / 7.76) Tommy Edman (4.5k / 6.10) (3.3k / 7.96) Paul DeJong (3.9k / 4.90) (3.1k / 6.39) Matt Joyce (3.3k / 5.83) (2.3k / 7.60) Dexter Fowler (3.5k / 7.71) (3k / 10.05) Nick Markakis (3.6k / 7.59) (2.8k / 9.89) Harrison Bader (3.1k / 0.41) (2.7k / 0.53)
Best of luck out there!