DraftKings MMA Mixed Martial Arts DFS Analysis Picks Plays Advice Strategy

UFC 243 – October 5, 2019

UFC IN MELBOURNE


There are some high salary fighters this week with big scoring potential. We will look at some options at $8,500 and less for this week in Melbourne and take a look at three fights with scoring potential on Saturday.

JUSTIN TAFA (DK $8,300) vs YORGAN DE CASTRO (DK $7,900)

Currents odds make this fight a favorite to end in under 1.5 rounds. This is due largely to the fact that in eight combined professional fights, these fighters have finished by KO/TKO in seven of them. To date, Yorgan de Castro has four early finishes and one decision victory as a pro with three of his finishes coming in the first round. Justin Tafa fights in his home country of Australia with a 3-0 record with all fights won by KO/TKO and none reaching the third round. These heavyweights are destined to clash in a major way and the winner of this one should be in line for a good conclusion bonus.

Caveman’s advice: In multi-entry contests, you will be hard pressed to find a fight with more big score potential than this one. Look for an early knockout and a big score. Tafa is the favorite with the home crowd behind him and should get the majority of lineups. Give this fight heavy exposure in the 80-100% range with a 70/30 split favoring Tafa.

(At the time of this writing, Justin Tafa is -127 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 58.37 on Fantasy Cruncher. Yorgan de Castro is +104 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 52.71 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

DAN HOOKER (DK $8,500) vs AL IAQUINTA (DK $7,700)

This fight may not have the knockout potential of the heavyweight fight on Saturday but it does bring the third and fourth highest FPPF fighters together for what looks to be a good scoring fight. Dan Hooker has an average of 79.0 FPPF and over his last four fights all have ended prior to the final bell, including one loss to Edson Barboza and three first round victories. Over Al Iaquinta’s last five fights he is 3-2 with quality losses at the hands of Khabib Nurmagomedov and Donald Cerrone. Iaquinta has an average of 70.5 FPPF and only the Main Event on Saturday features fighters with a higher combined FPPF.

Caveman’s advice: This fight is likely to go the distance but Hooker does present decent potential for a KO every time he fights. Iaquinta has a low salary and has a scoring potential even in a losing effort. I make him the better cash play but give Hooker the higher ceiling and thus he should get the majority of lineups in multi-entry contests. Give this fight solid exposure with 60-70% of your lineups in multi-entry contests. I give Hooker a 65/35 majority in the split.

(At the time of this writing, Dan Hooker is -156 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 61.58 on Fantasy Cruncher. Al Iaquinta is +131 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 49.11 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

ROBERT WHITTAKER (DK $8,200) vs ISRAEL ADESANYA (DK $8,000)

This fight features the numbers one and two fighters in terms of average FPPF. In addition, as a Main Event fight, it has two extra rounds of scoring potential. Over his last four fights, Robert Whittaker is 4-0 and eclipsed the century mark in half of those fights. Israel Adesanya is 5-0 in the UFC and has scored 100+ in three of those fights including two fantasy totals over 120 points. They will meet on Saturday in Melbourne, Australia and the crowd will favor their countryman Whittaker in this one. Last time Whittaker fought in Melbourne, he score 116.5 points in a first round KO of Derek Brunson.

Caveman’s advice: This fight has the highest floor for the eventual winner. In the majority of scenarios, this fight should produce a solid score for the victor and has the potential to produce on of the highest scores of the entire evening. Whittaker is a slight underdog in this one, despite fighting at home and opening as the favorite. I still prefer Whittaker in lineups but make both fighters worthy of a lot of lineups in multi-entry contests. Give this fight 80-100% exposure with a 60/40 split favoring Whittaker in Melbourne.

(At the time  of this writing, Robert Whittaker is -107 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 68.60 on Fantasy Cruncher. Israel Adesanya is -115 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 70.46 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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