The College Football Rundown | October 5th, 2019 – Expert DraftKings & FanDuel Advice

Welcome back to the College Football Rundown. The goal of this article is to highlight players listed on the cheat sheet in a more in-depth fashion, including some tricks and tips to help better you as a player.

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts, OU (DK: $9,300 | FD: $11,500)

I think the price here on FanDuel is a little outrageous and honestly may be the highest price I have ever seen for a quarterback there. Hurts is running rampant on all opponents right now and averaging 46 fantasy points per game right now. The only problem I have this week is the matchup. Oklahoma plays a Kansas team that was just dominated by TCU. Using some deductive reasoning here Oklahoma may take them out in a body bag. Oklahoma is a five-touchdown favorite and there is no disputing that Hurts will get his run in this, but much like last week I highly doubt that we will see him in the fourth quarter. The damage he can do in three quarters is still likely enough to make him the top-scoring quarterback on the entire slate but on FanDuel good luck placing a team around him that you like.

Joe Burrow, LSU (DK: $8,700 | FD: $10,800)

Through four games Burrow has an unreal 80% completion percentage to go along with 17 touchdowns. There is a little fear this week that the loss of Terrence Marshall may affect production but as long as Justin Jefferson suits up I don’t have a real fear here. I think Burrow could be viewed as slightly overpriced here, especially on FanDuel, as you are really relying on him throwing five touchdowns to reach his ceiling. However, this week’s matchup is the last real pushover LSU will see on the schedule outside of conference play. Utah State is scrapping the bottom of the barrel in the passing defense category so much like Hurts, the only real worry here is a blowout. LSU is a four-touchdown favorite with the highest game total on the board at 73.

Sean Clifford, PSU (DK: $7,100 | FD: $10,200)

This price is truly baffling to me as Clifford sees an $800 decrease on his price this week after a 41 fantasy point game against Maryland. This week Penn State gets a Purdue team missing their starting quarterback and their superstar wide receiver Rondale Moore. This will be a field day for the Penn State offense and Clifford should be a full $1,000 dollars more on DraftKings. FanDuel seemed to get this price correct and I am still in the ballpark of paying up for it there. Purdue is allowing 300 yards per game through the air and over 150 on the ground. From a points per dollar standpoint, Clifford is by far the best quarterback on the board for DK and I expect him to be heavily owned.

Jordan Love, UTST (DK: $6,300 | FD: $7,500)

I typically don’t chase the opposing side in blowouts, but there is a special case here in the Utah State/LSU game. As I mentioned above LSU is a four-touchdown favorite, but the game total is above 70 meaning Vegas still sees Utah State getting their fair share in this one. Utah State is not a bad team, but they do have a poor defense right now. Jordan Love is currently projected as the third quarterback off the board in the NFL Draft next year and has a lot of talent in his receiving corps. I won’t go as far as saying Utah State has any real chance in this game, but I think they have a great chance to cover the spread. Utah State will have to abandon the run early and with volume Love can easily pay off this price if he is right. The key to this pick is Love limiting his mistakes against a good defense and capitalizing on finding the end zone. Love only has six touchdown passes through four games, while the running game has six. This ratio isn’t typically a 1:1 in a normal circumstance.

Others to consider: Sam Ehlinger, TEX | Spencer Sanders, OKST | Jett Duffet, TTU

Running back

Chuba Hubbard, OKST (DK: $8,900 | FD: $10,600)

It is week six and Chuba Hubbard is almost a 1,000-yard rusher on the season. Take a moment and let that sink in. Hubbard is averaging 187 yards per game and already has 10 touchdowns. He just averaged 11.8 yards per carry last week against Kansas State and has now broken 250 yards rushing twice on the season. Not to mention the volume, as Hubbard has had over 25 carries in all but one game this year (a cupcake against McNeese State). This price will continue to climb and once we cross the $9,000 range we will have to start thinking twice about our roster construction. But at this price and with a matchup against a Texas Tech team that is allowing 180 yards per game (to UTEP, Arizona, Oklahoma) he is going to likely be one of the top point per dollar plays on the slate.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU (DK: $6,100 | FD: $9,000)

This running back pool is not chalked full of big names or big prices. The top pricing tier includes Hubbard and AJ Dillon. After that, we drop to a mid-tier of Keontay Ingram and Jatarvious Whitlow. I think the smart play this week is to drop down to running backs in big total games that will see their fair share of work in a blowout instead of trying to grind out 80 yards and a touchdown in a low scoring matchup. Edwards-Helaire has a touchdown in every game so far this season, despite only breaking 100 yards once. CE-H is still a big-play threat and in a high total game, the game script can be a little unpredictable outside of knowing they are going to score points. In the end, knowing a team will score is the safety blanket we should all value despite any overthinking or overanalyzing arch. I wouldn’t play this play on FanDuel as I think CE-H’s ceiling isn’t incredibly high but is good for a score or two in a positive matchup.

Trey Sermon, OU (DK: $5,400 | FD: $8,900)

Very similar thinking to above, Sermon isn’t a guy who I am going out of my way to roster week-to-week, but in a high total game and a massive blowout looming, we can at least bank on points in this one. Sermon is only averaging single-digit carries, but the $5,400 price tag on DraftKings is enticing against a team allowing over 425 total yards per game and over 200 per game on the ground. This is more of a price range play for me, as aside from Sermon, you are picking between Journey Brown, Gerold Bright, and…

Rodney Smith, MN (DK: $5,600 | FD: N/A)

…Rodney Smith! I bounced around heavily on who to write up here which should be a bit of an indication that I am not in love with a lot of options on this slate or at this price point. The past few weeks I have been confident that I was writing up “sure thing” picks as should be the job of any content creator. However, this week there is a lot of uncertainty whether it be with matchups, team depth, blowouts, etc. Rodney Smith benefited last week from Mohammed Ibrahim still being injured and there is a fear that if he plays this week that he will eat into Rodney Smith’s workload. But Smith, being a fifth-year senior, should continue to lead the backfield and Minnesota likely eases their injured players back in gradually. This lower running back tier can go a lot of different ways and I will have exposure spread out more equally this week than I have all year.

Others to consider: AJ Dillon, BC | Alex Fontenot, COL | King Doerue, PUR 

Wide receiver

CeeDee Lamb, OU (DK: $8,000 | FD: $9,700)

Everything that was said for Jalen Hurts applies here. Lamb is the clear-cut top receiver in this offense and they finally showed the damage they can do together last week while hooking up on three big-play touchdowns, leading to 185 yards receiving from Lamb. Lamb has found pay dirt in every game this season and no reason to believe that that streak ends against Kansas.

Tylan Wallace, OKST (DK: $7,300 | FD: $9,400)

Chalk up another one in the “confusing price” category as Tylan Wallace comes in at his lowest price of the season, $1,300 cheaper then what he was priced against Texas. I can see dropping Wallace’s price if he was struggling, but there have been no signs despite missing the end zone in the last two weeks. Despite the lack of touchdowns the past two games he still has six on the season and still managed 25 fantasy points against Kansas State. Wallace and Hubbard currently account for the majority of the Oklahoma State offense and until they are put into a negative matchup there is no real reason to go out of our way to avoid them. Next up for Oklahoma State is Texas Tech who has about as average of a defense as you can, ranking near the middle of all categories.

Ja’Marr Chase, LSU (DK: $7,000 | FD: $9,900)

The last name here feels a bit like what I am doing, but in reality, I think Chase is the best wide receiver play on the board this week. LSU will be without Terrence Marshall for the foreseeable future and Justin Jefferson is also nursing an injury though he is expected to play. Two weeks ago against Vanderbilt, Chase erupted for 10 receptions, 229 yards, and four touchdowns. I was expecting a bit more of a price hike off of that performance, but $7,000 is still modest enough with the given sample size. Joe Burrow is completing passes at a record-setting rate and Chase appears to be one of his first reads. This is a smash spot play this week, but I think most of the competition will realize it too.

KJ Hamler, PSU (DK: $6,000 | FD: $9,000)

Sticking with a stacking theme, if you are using Sean Clifford this week then stacking him with his big-play receiver makes a lot of sense for roster construction. Hamler is coming off of a big game against Maryland, catching six passes for 108 yards and a touchdown. As mentioned Purdue has one of the worst pass defenses in the entire nation, allowing 300 yards per game through the air and 33 points per game. Penn State may shake out as the best opponent Purdue has faced so far, so buckle up. I have said it a few times, but on a week with uncertainty, just attack the high total games.

David Bell, PUR (DK: $4,900 | FD: $7,600)

I’ll leave you with one of my favorite value plays on the slate and that comes in the form of the Purdue passing game. There are a lot of moving parts here as Elijah Sindelar won’t play and Rondale Moore is out indefinitely. On top of that, Jared Sparks will also not play. That leaves David Bell, Jackson Anthrop, and Bryce Hopkins to lead the receiving corps. Bell seemed to have the best connection with Jack Plummer, ending the game against Minnesota with an eight reception, 114-yard performance.

Others to consider: Devin Duvernay, TEX | Rashod Bateman, MN | Tony Brown, COL | Stephen Sullivan, LSU

My projections are now live on FantasyCruncher and will be available for every slate all season for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Though this content is free I encourage you to take your game to the next level by considering a subscription to FC Premium. If you are a lower stakes player, FC Lite gets you all the tools that Premium does, just with a lower lineup crunch cap. I will post the link below for anyone interested. I will be in Discord chat (something that comes with a subscription) before lock of all slates if you have questions. You can also reach out to me on Twitter @iKezims

https://www.fantasycruncher.com/premium-signup/CFB/monthly

 

About James Smizek

James is a daily fantasy sports veteran, dating all the way back to his days of writing content on DraftStreet.com for contest tickets. James specializes in NCAAF and NFL with a side helping of Tennis and some MLB/NBA. James is from Wisconsin and a die-hard Milwaukee Brewers fan. You can reach out to James on Twitter @iKezims

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