Welcome to the FC Insights Wide Receiver Targets Article. In this post, we will be breaking down our top options and plays at the WR position for each DFS week of the 2019-2020 NFL DFS season.
In this article, I am going to give you the top ten wide receivers in my personal model which uses a number of factors like Vegas total, match-up, salary, etc. Please note that just because a player is not in this article doesn’t mean that I don’t like them or that they are not in my player pool.
Last Weeks Results
Based off of DraftKings scoring
- John Brown (14.20 fantasy points, 2.7x value, WR25)
- Sammy Watkins (10.90 fantasy points, 1.5x value, WR35)
- Mecole Hardman (16.10 fantasy points, 3.4x value, WR20)
- Cooper Kupp (20.60 fantasy points, 3.4x value, WR7)
- Michael Thomas (18.90 fantasy points, 2.4x value, WR10)
- Julian Edelman (9.20 fantasy points, 1.3x value, WR41)
- Michael Gallup (12.80 fantasy points, 2.3x value, WR27)
- John Ross III (24.20 fantasy points, 5.3x value, WR5)
- DeAndre Hopkins (9.00 fantasy points, 1.1x value, WR42)
- Donte Moncrief (0.00 fantasy points, 0.0x value, WR91)
Nelson Agholor ($4,800 FD, $3,600 DK)
Agholor is going to be chalk this week and for good reason as the Eagles are really hurting at the receiver position. Both DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery should be out after missing most of last week. In that game last week, Agholor saw 11 targets and turned those targets into eight catches for 107 yards and a score. While it is hard to ask for another performance like that from Agholor this week I don’t see why we don’t see a similar performance as the Lions are a great match-up. The Lions have been burned by slot receivers in both weeks this season allowing eight catches, 113 yards and a score to Larry Fitzgerald in week one and eight catches for 98 yards in week two to Keenan Allen.
Devin Smith ($5,200 FD, $3,400 DK)
Smith has only three targets this season but he has turned those targets into three catches for 74 yards and a score. This week we should see Smith’s target share go way up as he takes over Michael Gallup’s role in the Cowboys offense. Smith should not just see more targets and playing time this week but the match-up is about as juicy as it gets as the Cowboys face the Dolphins. The Dolphins have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season and the fifth-most passing yards per game. As far as individual match-ups go, Smith has the best individual match-up on the slate using FantasyPros WR/CB matchup chart.
Marquise Brown ($6,100 FD, $5,900 DK)
I was expecting Hollywood to come back to earth in week two as his week one didn’t seem like it was possible to repeat after playing limited snaps. While I was correct that Brown couldn’t repeat week one’s performance he did not come crashing back to earth. In fact, Brown did the opposite and showed that he is going to be a player to target each week as he was targeted 13 times and turned those targets into eight catches for 86 yards. This week should be another big week for Brown as he takes on a weak Chiefs secondary in a game that should be extremely high scoring. While I have some of the value wide receivers graded out slightly ahead of Brown on a point per dollar basis it is very close.
Chris Godwin ($7,600 FD, $6,900 DK)
Godwin has lived up to the hype through the Bucs first two games. In those games, Godwin leads the Bucs in snaps, targets (15), receptions (11), receiving yards (174) and touchdowns (2). This week we can expect Godwin’s breakout to continue as he is in an elite match-up against the Giants. This season the Giants have allowed the third-most passing yards per game at 321 and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Kenny Golladay ($7,000 FD, $6,600 DK)
Golladay is right up there with Chris Godwin as my favorite mid-tier wide receiver as he has also been great to start the season. Golladay has at least nine targets in each of the first two games of the season. Golladay has turned those targets into 12 catches for 159 yards and two scores. Golladay has at least 14 fantasy points in each of those games and is a lock to hit in this week as the Lions take on the Eagles. The Eagles funnel teams to the pass and this season they are allowing the second-most passing yards per game and second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Keenan Allen ($7,800 FD, $7,000 DK)
There are a ton of advanced stats that show how damn good Allen has been but we don’t even have to look at them to show how good he is. All we need to look at when it comes to Allen is his per-game averages. This season Allen is averaging 12.5 targets, eight catches, 110.5 yards, and 23.6 fantasy points. Those are better numbers than all of the other elite receivers on this slate yet you are getting Allen at a discount compared to them. That fact including as well as a great match-up against the Texans makes Allen my favorite stud receiver on this slate.
Julio Jones ($8,300 FD, $7,300 DK)
Jones had a big Monday night game in which he caught five passes for 106 yards and two scores. Jones now has 11 catches on 22 targets for 137 yards and three touchdowns. The touchdowns are what has always been the complaint when it comes to Jones and if he continues to score he will be the best fantasy wide receiver in the league this year. This week I don’t see why Jones doesn’t have another huge game even in a so so match-up against the Colts. What I love the most this week with Jones is that we are getting what I like to call the Monday night discount as fantasy sites release salaries before that game is played and don’t take into account a players performance in that game.
James Washington ($5,200 FD, $3,500 DK)
If you look at Washington’s numbers this season you might be scared away from him as they are nothing to write home about. With that being said I love Washington this week for three reasons. The first is Donte Moncrief looks to be on the outs after another really bad game. The second is the fact that Ben Roethlisberger is out for the year. While that may seem like a downgrade to most it is not as I believe Mason Rudolph at this point of his career is better than Roethlisberger. Rudolph and Washington also have a connection as they went to the same college where Washington put up big numbers and played a lot in the preseason together. In his 216 snaps over the preseason according to Adam Levitan, Washington has 17 catches for 366 yards and four touchdowns.
Tyler Lockett ($6,600 FD, $6,200 DK)
It doesn’t seem to matter if Lockett gets 12 targets like he did last game or two targets as he did in game one he always seems to produce. Lockett has double-digit fantasy points in both games this season and in 18 of his past 20 games overall. This week we should not see that streak snapped as he gets a great individual match-up against P.J. Williams and the Saints as a whole. Last season the Saints allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and so far this season they are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,900 FD, $7,800 DK)
Hopkins is always on my radar just based on the number of targets he sees weekly. Last season, Hopkins averaged 10.19 targets per game and this season he is averaging 10.5 targets per game. Hopkins not only sees a lot of targets but he is productive week to week. With that being said while I will have shares of Hopkins this week I don’t feel he is a must-play at his salary especially with the amount of value at the position on this slate.
I could only write up ten wide receivers this week but there are a ton more that I like this week. This is the largest my wide receiver player pool has since dating back to last season if that gives you any indication of how many guys I like this week.