HIGH EXPOSURE FIGHTS FOR DFS CONTESTS FOR UFC IN VANCOUVER
In multi-entry contest (especially in mass multi-entry contests where the prize money can be quite top heavy) it is good to play both sides of fights that are likely to have high volatility with excellent scoring potential for the eventual winner. Let’s take a look at three fights that match this description and should be played heavily on Saturday in Vancouver.
NIKITA KRYLOV (DK $8,500) vs GLOVER TEIXEIRA (DK $7,700)
The odds of this fight not going the distance sit currently at -510. It figures as the second most likely fight on Saturday ending to feature an early conclusion bonus according to the betting lines. Early conclusions equate to bigger scores. These fight has the third highest combined FPPF of all fights on Saturday. All signs point to high scoring for the winner of this one.
Caveman’s advice: Play this fight heavily. Krylov’s lack of octagon experience (1-1 in the UFC) concerns me and I prefer Teixeira (who has won three of his last four, averaging 100+ FPPF in those three victories) in this matchup, especially when figuring in his smaller salary. Given that both fighters come in at $8.5K and under, one of these fighters should be used in the vast majority of lineups in multi-entry contests. I would give this fight 80-100% exposure with a 60/40 split in favor of the cheaper Teixeira.
(At the time of this writing, Nikita Krylov is -132 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 60.48 on Fantasy Cruncher. Glover Teixeira is +109 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 53.27 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
JIMMY CRUTE (DK $8,200) vs MISHA CIRKUNOV (DK $8,000)
The odds of this fight not going the distance sit currently at -350. It has the fourth shortest odds to finish before the final bell. These fighters combine for the second highest FPPF of all fights on Saturday. Misha Cirkunov is coming into this fight having lost three of his last four fights while Jimmy Crute is currently undefeated as a professional with two wins since fighting in the UFC.
Caveman’s advice: This fight also figures to end early with high scoring potential for the winner. Odds and salaries are close in this one and at $8,200 and $8,000, these fighters are priced well. This fight is another must play for nearly all lineups in multi-entry contests. I do like Crute to win this one and give him the most play. I’m giving this fight 80-100% exposure with a 70/30 split in favor of Jimmy Crute.
(At the time of this writing, Jimmy Crute is -114 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 57.28 on Fantasy Cruncher. Misha Cirkunov is -109 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 56.48 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
JUSTIN GAETHJE (DK $9,000) vs DONALD CERRONE (DK $7,200)
Given that there are five rounds to reach the distance for this fight, it isn’t surprising that it has the shortest odds of all fights Saturday to not go the distance. It also has the highest combined FPPF of all fights. Both fighters have been hot with Cowboy Cerrone winning three of his last four and Gaethje winning has last two by first round KO. I am concerned with Cerrone as this will be his fourth fight this year and his third since May. In May he went the distance with Al Iaquinta and he lost by stoppage to Tony Ferguson a month later. Fatigue may be an issue in a five round fight for the 36 year old fighter.
Caveman’s advice: This figures to be a bad spot for Cerrone. He fights an opponent six years younger who will be fighting his third fight in just over a year’s span while himself fighting his third fight in just 132 days. Look for endurance to be a factor on Saturday. I think this is another must play fight in multi-entry contests and will give the fight 90-100% exposure. Gaethje will get the majority of play for me, but Cerrone at such a low salary will get a decent share. Give it a 75/25 split in favor of Justin Gaethje.
(At the time of this writing, Justin Gaethje is -175 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 79.57 on Fantasy Cruncher. Donald Cerrone is +147 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 59.66 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!