Diving deep into player ownership expectations for week 2 NFL DFS contests for the 2019-2020 season.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be fading.
Mahomes is always going to be a popular play as all he has done since taking over as a starting quarterback at the start of last season is produce. In his 19 starts since the start of last season, Mahomes has produced at least 17 fantasy points in each start and has produced at least 24 fantasy points in 14 of those starts. The Raiders are also an excellent match-up as they allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season.
Verdict: Bad Chalk- Calling Mahomes bad chalk is kind of silly as he is going to produce a big game but his salary is why I have him as bad chalk. Mahomes would really need to lap the field at his salary to really pay off and I just don’t see that happening. Players like Tom Brady, Josh Allen, and Jared Goff to name a few should have similar outings as Mahomes and each of them especially Goff and Allen are going to cost you a fraction of the cost as Mahomes is.
Jacobs had a huge debut on Monday night rushing for 85 yards and two scores while adding in another 28 yards in the passing game. The Chiefs the team Jacobs is facing this week allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs a season ago. This game also has the largest projected total of the slate. Jacobs is also very affordable on all sites. All of those reasons make it no surprise that Jacobs is expected to be the highest owner running back on this slate by a wide margin.
Verdict: Good Chalk- The match-up and salary are too good for Jacobs this week and I would be shocked if he didn’t have another huge game.
Awesemo has Watkins as the highest projected wide receiver on FanDuel and the second-highest projected wide receiver on DraftKings in terms of ownership and that shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone after Watkins big week one. In that game, Watkins had nine catches for 198 yards and three scores on his way to being the highest scoring player of the week. Most of that damage was done with Tyreek Hill out of the lineup and Hill is not expected back for a couple of weeks.
Verdict: Good Chalk- I don’t love Watkins salary on DraftKings compared to FanDuel but I don’t see how you get away from not having a lot of exposure to Watkins this week. Watkins when healthy which he finally is is one of the best wideouts in the NFL and everything is set up for him to have another big game this week.
Guess what we have a fourth straight player from the Chiefs-Raiders game that is expected to be the highest projected owned player. Just like the other three players the total of this game and last weeks performance have a lot to do with why Waller is projected to be so highly owned.
Verdict: Good Chalk- I don’t think that Waller is going to produce in the top ten in terms of raw fantasy points this week at the position but he should be in the top five in terms of value as he should see plenty of targets once again and the Chiefs did allow the most fantasy points per game to tight ends a season ago.
The Patriots dominated the Steelers last week and get a much better match-up this week against a Dolphins team that looks like it might not win a game this season.
Verdict: Good Chalk- The Pats defense checks off all the boxes for me this week and I personally will be overweight on them as I feel the ten percent ownership they are currently projected for is too low.
Chiefs @ Raiders
As you can tell be this article the Chiefs-Raiders game is projected to be an extremely popular game to stack. While I get why it is a popular game it is not my favorite game to stack on this slate even before factoring in the ownership. I was higher on the Saints-Rams game to start the week and I am even higher on them now as that game is projected to have a lot lower ownership, has a projected point total only 1.5 points lower and is expected to be much closer with a spread of two points compared to seven points. If stacking a game that is the game I would stack personally.