Welcome to the FC Insights Wide Receiver Targets Article. In this post, we will be breaking down our top options and plays at the WR position for each DFS week of the 2019-2020 NFL DFS season.
In this article, I am going to give you the top ten wide receivers in my personal model which uses a number of factors like Vegas total, match-up, salary, etc. Please note that just because a player is not in this article doesn’t mean that I don’t like them or that they are not in my player pool.
Last Weeks Results
Based off of DraftKings scoring
- Chris Godwin (14.30 fantasy points, 2.3x value, WR21)
- Tyler Lockett (11.40 fantasy points, 1.9x value, WR33)
- Marquise Goodwin (1.70 fantasy points, 0.4x value, WR76)
- Albert Wilson (3.40 fantasy points, 0.9x value, WR62)
- Mike Evans (4.80 fantasy points, 0.6x value, WR58)
- Odell Beckham Jr. (14.10 fantasy points, 1.7x value, WR25)
- Julio Jones (15.10 fantasy points, 1.9x value, WR20)
- Trey Quinn (13.30 fantasy points, 3.9x value, WR28)
- Kenny Golladay (14.20 fantasy points, 2.3x value, WR23)
- Tyler Boyd (14.30 fantasy points, 2.5x value, WR22)
John Brown ($6,300 FD, $5,200 DK)
Brown and Josh Allen seemed like a match made in heaven when Brown was first acquired by the Bills as Allen loves to throw deep and Brown is one of the best deep threats in the league. After one week it looks like the marriage is not only going to be a fruitful one for Brown and Allen but also fantasy owners as Brown had seven catches on ten targets for 123 yards and a score. This week as hard as it is to believe I am expecting a similar performance from Brown as he gets an elite match-up against the Giants. The Giants secondary is trash and in week one they allowed 405 passing yards which was the most in the NFL and 46.1 fantasy points to the Cowboys wide receivers which was second-most in week one.
Sammy Watkins ($7,400 FD, $7,200 DK)
If you are in our Discord you would know that I was higher on most on Watkins last week as he was my 11th ranked wide receiver overall but even I didn’t expect him to have the game he had. Watkins was a beast with nine catches for 198 yards and three touchdowns against the Jaguars. Now, expecting Watkins to put up those kinds of numbers again this week is just plain stupid but you should full expect Watkins to be a WR1 this week with Tyreek Hill out as Hill’s absence makes Watkins a lock for five-plus targets. Last season when receiving at least five targets, Watkins averaged 5.22 catches for 74.78 yards and 12.42 fantasy using FanDuel’s scoring. The 12.42 fantasy points as I mentioned last week in the Yahoo core plays article would have made him WR22 last season. The match-up for Watkins is also a positive one as he will be matched-up with Lamarcus Joyner and according to PFF WR/CB matchup chart that is one of the best individual match-ups this week.
Mecole Hardman ($4,700 FD, $4,800 DK)
I debated putting Hardman in this article as he did nothing in week one after Tyreek Hill went down. Hardman played on 53 of 59 snaps in week one but came up empty in the catch department on only one target. Hardman is also going to be chalk city this week especially on FanDuel where he is dirt cheap. With that being said my model has Hardman as the number three wide receiver this week mainly due to his potential targets with Hill out and the Chiefs high Vegas total of 30 points. Hardman was also excellent in the preseason with six catches for 88 yards and two scores so the talent is certainly there.
Cooper Kupp ($6,800 FD, $6,000 DK)
The fact that Kupp is playing so quickly after tearing his ACL is amazing the fact that he looked so good in week one is another story. Kupp looked like he never suffered a major injury and in week one had seven catches for 46 yards on ten targets. This week I am expecting even bigger things from the Rams slot receiver as he gets a match-up with P.J. Williams. Williams allowed three catches on four targets for 41 yards and a score in week one according to PFF and last year had a coverage grade of just 48. Kupp should eat Williams alive this week in a game that has all the makings of a shootout.
Michael Thomas ($8,500 FD, $8,000 DK)
Thomas to me is the best wide receiver in the NFL and is coming off a huge game in which he caught ten of 13 targets for 123 yards. That kind of performance is honestly commonplace for Thomas but that is not why he is so high on in my rankings. The reason why he is so high in my rankings is due to the match-up against the Rams. This game has the highest projected total on the slate at 53 and last year when these two teams played in the regular season Thomas was unstoppable. Thomas had 12 catches for 211 yards and a score on his way to 42.10 DraftKings points in that game.
Julian Edelman ($7,100 FD, $6,900 DK)
The Dolphins secondary is bad like really bad and in week one they were burned for six scored and 378 yards by the Ravens. This week they should be burned again by a dangerous Pats passing attack. The question really is which of the Patriots loaded wide receiver crew is the best play and for me it is Edelman. Edelman has the fourth-best individual match-up this week according to PFF WR/CB Match-up Chart and even with Antonio Brown seemingly in the mix should see plenty of targets after seeing 11 targets last week.
Michael Gallup ($6,200 FD, $5,600 DK)
I know our very own Manny Lora (MLora) is going to hate this play as he hates Gallup but after week one Gallup looks like the real deal. Gallup caught all seven of his targets against the Giants for 158 yards. Now, I know the Giants have an awful secondary but if you look at Gallup’s numbers dating back to last season you will see that he has at least 50 yards receiving or a score in six of his past seven games. The Redskins are also a fantastic match-up for Gallup as they were shredded by the Eagles last week and allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers last week.
John Ross III ($6,400 FD, $4,600 DK)
It took three seasons but Ross might finally start living up to his potential. In week one, Ross had by far his best game as a pro with seven catches for 158 yards and two scores on 12 targets. While I am not expecting a repeat performance as Ross has been inconsistent his whole career he is worth rostering this week with A.J. Green out as speed does kill and the 49ers despite a solid performance last week are not a good pass defense. Last season the 49ers allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and the second-most passing touchdowns.
DeAndre Hopkins ($9,000 FD, $8,100 DK)
Hopkins is right up there with Thomas as the best wide receiver in the NFL and always sees a ton of targets. If you asked me who scored the most raw points this week I would have Hopkins right behind Thomas. With that being said Hopkins is only ninth in my rankings due to his salary and match-up.
Donte Moncrief ($5,400 FD, $4,000 DK)
Moncrief may not seem like a good play this week but at his salary, he has to be on your radar especially if JuJu Smith-Schuster is out. Even if JuJu plays Moncrief figures to get plenty of targets after seeing ten targets in week one against a Seahawks defense that is not what it once was. Last week the Seahawks were burned for 395 and two scores by the Bengals. Moncrief also according to the WR/CB Chart I love to use has a great individual match-up against Tre Flowers.