Analyzing the starting pitching landscape for September 11 MLB DFS contests.
Sonny Gray @ SEA
Gray continues to post great start after great start – with his last disappointing fantasy outing being on July 29th. Tonight, he draws a nice match-up against the Mariners, who have a below average wOBA against RHP to go along with a strike-out rate of 25.7% – putting him in an outstanding spot for success tonight. He’s expensive, but doens’t break the bank, and the only downside to rostering him tonight in my books is the fact that he will likely be very popular.
Chris Paddack vs. CHC
The match-up is far from ideal for the talented rookie RHP – but he comes into this one in great form, fresh off of two great outings in his last two starts – albeit against inferior line-ups. Paddack has the ability to miss bats at a great clip (9.5 K/9) while limiting base-runners (1.02 WHIP) – and he has been great in his rookie season. I like his chances of having a strong showing tonight – just keep in mind there is risk to rostering him, given the match-up against the Cubs.
Value Pivots & DraftKings SP2 Candidates
Reynaldo Lopez vs. KC
Lopez has been a completely different pitcher in the second half of the season, holding opposing hitters to a .278 wOBA to go along with posting a 1.19 WHIP and seeing his strike-out rate surge from 19.6% to 23.3%. He draws a high floor match-up with the Royals tonight, who rank 24th in the majors in terms of wOBA against RHP. While they do a decent job putting the bat on the ball (K rate of only 21.3%), Lopez has quality swing and miss stuff, and I like him to build on the gem that he threw in his last start for the White Sox.
Daily Dice Rolls
Logan Webb vs. PIT
Webb has alternated strong outings with atrocious ones – so in his four starts, two have been disasters. With that said, if you are looking for a cheap arm with a moderately high ceiling to spend up on bats, there is intrigue here on a night that is poor from a SP standpoint. The Pirates aren’t a great draw – but due to the lack of options tonight, I think you can do worse than rostering Webb for a very affordable price…just keep in mind that he is a boom/bust option.