Welcome to the FC Insights Running Back Targets Article. In this post, we will be breaking down our top options and plays at the RB position for each DFS week of the 2019-2020 NFL DFS season.
In this article, I am going to give you the top eight running backs in my personal model which uses a number of factors like Vegas total, match-up, salary, etc. Please note that just because a player is not in this article doesn’t mean that I don’t like them or that they are not in my player pool.
Last Weeks Results
Based off of DraftKings scoring
- Dalvin Cook (29.00 fantasy points, 4.8x value, RB3)
- Devin Singletary (14.80 fantasy points, 4.1x value, RB13)
- Nich Chubb (11.50 fantasy points, 1.8x value, RB18)
- Kerryon Johnson (8.20 fantasy points, 1.4x value, RB25)
- Austin Ekeler (39.40 fantasy points, 7.2x value, RB2)
- Saquon Barkley (20.90 fantasy points, 2.3x value, RB10)
- Mark Ingram (25.70 fantasy points, 5.0x value, RB7)
- Christian McCaffrey (45.90 fantasy points, 5.2x value, RB1)
Alvin Kamara ($8,700 FD, $8,200 DK)
Kamara is going to cost you a pretty penny this week but should be well worth it as he takes on the Rams. The Rams struggled to stop the run last season allowing the tenth most rushing yards per game and struggled to stop a similar player as Kamara Christian McCaffrey to start the season. Last week, McCaffrey had 19 carries for 128 yards and two scores and added 10 catches on 11 targets for 81 yards. In week one, Kamara had 13 carries for 97 yards and seven catches for 72 yards on eight carries. Kamara also had a similar type game when they faced the Rams last season. In the playoff game, Kamara only had 15 yards rushing but caught 11 passes for 96 yards and in the regular-season game, he had 19 carries for 82 yards and four catches for 34 yards while scoring three times.
Giovani Bernard ($5,700 FD, $5,300 DK)
All signs point towards Joe Mixon being out this week and that makes Bernard one of the best values on this slate. In the four games that Joe Mixon has missed since joining the league, Bernard is averaging 55.5 rushing yards, 7.4 catches for 33.3 yards and 19.4 DraftKings points. Bernard not only gets the huge boost with Mixon out but the match-up against the 49ers is also an excellent one. The 49ers allowed 4.7 yards rushing and 121 rushing yards to the Bucs trio of running backs and last season allowed 19.8 fantasy points per game to running backs which was the 13th most. The 49ers also struggle against pass-catching backs which Bernard is as they allowed 8.2 receptions to the position a year ago.
Josh Jacobs ($6,500 FD, $4,700 DK)
I was a huge Jacobs fan coming into the season and man did he look good in his debut with all eyes on him. In the Monday Night game, Jacobs rushed for 85 yards and two scores and added a 28-yard reception. More important than the actual numbers for me was the fact that Jacobs had 24 total touches and played over 75% of the snaps. That shows me that Jacobs will be a work horseback for the Raiders this season. This week I don’t see Jacobs slowing down as he is in one of the best match-ups for running backs in the NFL against the Chiefs. Last season the Chiefs allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game and third-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Austin Ekeler ($7,500 FD, $6,100 DK)
I am a little worried about Ekeler this week as I am a fan of the Lions front four. The Lions front four lead by Snack Harrison is one of the best running stopping units in the NFL. With that being said I am still very high on Ekeler this week for two reasons. The first is Ekeler looked that good last week with 154 total yards on 18 total touches and three scores. While I am not expecting Ekeler to get three scores this week I am expecting him to have 100 plus total yards again as he always performs with Melvin Gordon out. The second reason why I am still very high on Ekeler is due to what David Johnson was able to do against the Lions last week. While Johnson is known as a better overall back they both have similar skill sets and are both pass-catching backs. Last week, Johnson had 82 rushing yards, 55 receiving yards on six catches and a score.
Matt Breida ($5,600 FD, $5,200 DK)
Tevin Coleman is out this week for the 49ers which means we should see Breida get the bulk of the 49ers touches out of the backfield. The potential for 20 plus touches makes Breida one of the best plays on this slate as the Bengals are an elite match-up for running backs. Last season they allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. I do have Breida behind both Giovani Bernard and Josh Jacobs this week as I am a little worried that Raheem Mostert will steal a lot more touches than we would like from our running back especially if he is hot.
Devin Singletary ($5,700 FD, $4,200 DK)
I am not going to read too much into Singletary’s week one as he only touched the ball nine times with four rushes but it is hard not to like what you saw. Singletary had 70 rushing yards in his four carries and added another 28 yards on his five catches. What stood out to me more than how explosive Singletary looked was the fact that he played 45 snaps compared to 21 for the other two Bills backs. The snap count makes me believe that Singletary is going to get more touches moving forward and I am willing to take a huge risk on him this week at his salary as he takes on a really bad Giants defense.
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500 FD, $8,700 DK)
Elliott did not get a full workload after spending the whole offseason on a Cabo beach eating tacos but should be back to a full workload this week. That makes him my second favorite expensive running back on this slate as he should eat against the Redskins. The Redskins allowed 123 rushing yards and a score to the Eagles last week and last season ranked 28th in DVOA against the run. Elliott also had a big game in one of their two meetings last season with 143 total yards and a score on his way to 28.3 DraftKings points.
Adrian Peterson ($4,800 FD, $3,400 DK)
Peterson was inactive last week for the Redskins but is going to be active this week and will likely get a ton of carries as Derrius Guice suffered another setback. That alone has Peterson on my radar at his salary as he showed he still had last season and was the best Redskins back in the offseason. I will say I am not as high on Peterson as I am sure some of my peers are going to be and that is due to the match-up. The Cowboys had a bit of trouble with the Giants run game last week but last season allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game. I also expect the Cowboys to be up big in this game which should mean the Redskins pass the ball a lot which would mean more of Chris Thompson who is the pass-catching back than Peterson.