The Hitting Rundown: Featuring stacks to target for the FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS slate on September 10, 2019.
Number of Games: 14
Teams with high projected run totals (5.0 or above): LAD (6.5), ATL (5.3), BOS (5.5), MIN (5.8), HOU (5.6), KC (5.0), CHW (5.1), STL (7.4), COL (6.2), CLE (5.2), CHC (5.1)
Games with weather concerns: None
Astros vs. Tanner Roark (Projected total: 5.6)
There are about six or seven teams who could be in this article tonight as the top stack but I am giving the edge to the Astros who are on a roll I have never personally seen. In the past two games, the Astros have scored 36 runs and hit nine home runs. The Astros are not only smoking the ball which is really not a surprise with their lineup but the match-up with Tanner Roark is also a good one. Roark is not the worst pitcher on this slate or even close to the worst pitcher but he is not a great pitcher or even really a good pitcher. This season, Roark has an xFIP of 4.52, an HR/9 rate of 1.16, a WHIP of 1.35 and has allowed a 36.9% hard-hit rate.
Reds vs. Justus Sheffield (Projected total: 4.8)
Eugenio Suarez and Aristides Aquino are not exactly cheap but they are not exactly expensive and when you look at the rest of the Reds salary even if you rostered both of those players the Reds are a very affordable stack. The Reds are not just extremely affordable but I love the match-up for them as they take on Justus Sheffield. Sheffield is coming off his best career start against the Cubs but even with that start, Sheffield has not figured out major league hitting. In his seven career appearances which includes three starts, Sheffield has an ERA of 6.16, an HR/9 rate of 1.89, and a WHIP of 1.89. Sheffield has a K rate under 20%, a walk rate over 10%. Those are all numbers that I want to attack especially with a Reds team that features eight players with an OPS of at least .720 and wRC+ of at least 98 against left-handed pitching since the start of last season.
Giants vs. Mitch Keller (Projected total: 4.5)
Stacking the Giants is always a risk as they are not a very good hitting team but I am willing to take the risk tonight with them as they take on Mitch Keller. Keller has an awful ERA of 8.18, an HR/9 rate of 1.36 and WHIP of 1.88 in his eight career starts. Keller is allowing hitters to slash .350/.401/.566 with a .403 wOBA and a 37.6% hard-hit rate in those games. Now Keller is most likely not as bad as those numbers show as he has been extremely unlucky in those starts but until he shows more I will stack against him.
Good luck today! If you have any questions, you can follow and send me questions on Twitter @zachsgotmoxy.