Analyzing the starting pitching landscape for September 10 MLB DFS contests.
Walker Buehler @ BAL
Drawbacks here are the price point and expected ownership for Buehler, who has a top-tier match-up against the Orioles tonight. He was touched up in his last start against the Rockies, but I like him to bounce back, going up against a Baltimore team that has a .305 wOBA against RHP on the season to go along with a healthy strike-out rate of 23.4%. Buehler has been great all season long for the heavily favoured Dodgers, posting 10.8 K/9 to go along with a WHIP of 1.04. Look for him to have the highest absolute fantasy points tonight – it just becomes a question as to if you are able to find quality bats to compliment him given how expensive he is.
Zac Gallen @ NYM
The Mets are solid against RHP, owning a .322 wOBA and a modest strike-out rate of 22%, putting Gallen in a less than ideal spot. However, his price point reflects that, as he remains affordable, despite the great numbers that he is putting up in his rookie season. Gallen has 10.7 K/9, and while control continues to be a headwind for his fantasy success, he has righted the ship in his past 3 starts, walking only 4 hitters over that stretch. There’s some risk here, but if you are looking for a cheaper pivot off of Buehler, he is a great option despite the tough match-up.
Value Pivots & DraftKings SP2 Candidates
Zack Wheeler vs. ARI
Wheeler has struggled missing bats in his last few starts, but he is an affordable option tonight, and worth strong consideration for a SP2 slot. And when you layer in the fact that he has done a good job of missing bats over the course of the season (8.7 K/9), there’s plenty to like here for the Mets righty. Look for him to hit value in this one going up against a D-Backs line-up that is middle of the pack against RHP on the season.
Ryan Yarborough @ TEX
The Rangers own a .310 wOBA against LHP on the season to go along with the second highest strike-out rate in the majors, checking in at 26.1%. Yarborough has been great yet again for Tampa, and seems to be pitching with a longer leash for the Rays, going at least 6 innings in 4 of his last 5 starts. The ball-park isn’t ideal, but I like the price point and match-up for Yarborough a lot, and he is one of my favourite options for the Main Slate tonight.
Daily Dice Rolls
Johnny Cueto vs. PIT
A lazy narriative tonight may be that Cueto will be on a strict pitch count in his first start in the majors in 2019 – but keep in mind he went 6 strong in his final rehab start. He had a 21:1 K/BB ratio in his rehab outings, and draws a high floor match-up against a below average Pirates line-up. I wouldn’t expect him to pitch into the seventh (and the sixth is in question to be fair) – but I do think that he is worth a dice roll as a contrarian value option for tonight’s main slate to open up plenty of salary room for bats.