Diving deep into player ownership expectations for week 1 NFL DFS contests for the 2019-2020 season.
In this article, we are going to look at the projected most popular player at each position using Awesemo’s ownership projections and determine if the popular play is what we like to call Good Chalk or players that you should be playing or Bad Chalk or players that you should be fading.
Winston is expected to be the most popular player at the quarterback position this week as Winston is expected to make a big leap forward under the guidance of Bruce Arians and is also in a positive match-up against the 49ers. Last season the 49ers allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and second-most passing touchdowns.
Verdict: Good Chalk- This is a great spot for Winston and though he has been erratic in the past and inconsistent it is hard to see him not coming through this week.
The projected ownership on the most popular running backs is more bunched up than it is at the quarterback position but one name remains at the top of the list as the highest projected play for both FanDuel and DraftKings and that player is Dalvin Cook. Cook has dealt with injuries in his first two seasons in the NFL but has all the talent in the world and looks healthy. More important than talent when it comes to Cook this week is his match-up against the Falcons. The Falcons are a dream match-up for running backs as they have allowed the most receptions to running backs for each of the past four seasons and allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs a year ago.
Verdict: Good Chalk- The match-up and salary are too good for me to pass over Cook this week.
On FanDuel Awesemo has Chris Godwin as the player with the highest projected ownership but I wanted to focus on the player that he has with the highest projected ownership on DraftKings and that is Curtis Samuel. Samuel has gotten a lot of buzz in the offseason and is dirt cheap at only $4,200 in salary. Samuel is also in a decent enough against the Rams who allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to wide receivers a year ago. This game also currently has one of the highest projected totals on the slate with a projected total of 50.
Verdict: Bad Chalk- While I understand why Samuel is going to be chalky I think he is a player to fade or be underweight this week for several reasons. The first is the Panthers don’t throw a ton to their wide receivers and when they do they tend to throw to their WR1. While people are saying that Samuel is the Panthers top wideout I am personally not convinced of that. D.J. Moore was a high pick last year and showed a lot of promise in his rookie season when he was the Panthers top wideout.
Kelce is the best tight end in the NFL and plays in the best offense in the NFL. For those reasons, it is no surprise to see Kelce at the top of the ownership projections for each site.
Verdict: Bad Chalk- It is hard to actually call Kelce bad chalk as he is likely to be the highest-scoring tight end on this slate but I personally am way underweight on him for a couple of reasons. The first is I don’t love the match-up with the Jaguars. The Jaguars have one of the best defenses in the NFL and were the only team to hold Patrick Mahomes in check a year ago. The Jaguars are also really good against tight ends ranking 13th in DVOA against the position while only allowing eight fantasy points per game to the position. The second reason is Kelce’s salary. There are plenty of cheaper tight ends who are in much better match-ups for me to spend this much on Kelce this week.
The Ravens were a top defense last season and expect to be one of the top defenses this season. They are also in a great match-up against a Dolphins team that has the worst offensive line in the NFL, a weak core of skill players and a turnover-prone quarterback.
Verdict: Bad Chalk- The Ravens are in the same boat as Travis Kelce for me as it is hard to call them bad chalk as they are likely to be the highest-scoring defense on this slate but are the most expensive defense with plenty of cheaper teams in just as good of a spot as the Ravens.