The Hitting Rundown: Featuring stacks to target for the FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS slate on August 20, 2019.
Number of Games: 15
Teams with high projected run totals (5.0 or above): PHI (5.7), BOS (5.5), TB (5.0), ATL (6.1), MIN (5.7), HOU (6.2), ARI (5.3), NYY (5.1), LAD (5.6)
Games with weather concerns: WAS @ PIT, KC @ BAL, SD @ CIN, MIA @ ATL
Braves vs. Elieser Hernandez (Projected total: 6.1)
Elieser Hernandez shut the Braves down two starts ago but I don’t expect that to happen again as he is not a good pitcher. This season Hernandez has a FIP of 6.22, an HR/9 rate of 2.53 and a WHIP of 1.29. Hernandez has really struggled since moving back into the Marlins starting rotation four games ago as he has allowed at least five runs in two of those starts. Hernandez not only sucks but this game is going to be played at SunTrust Park and not Marlins Park like last game was. SunTrust Park is a big park upgrade and the Braves are one of the best home hitting teams in the majors this season ranking in the top six in both team ISO and team wOBA at home.
Yesterday’s results- Astros: 5 runs, 8 hits, 5 walks, 0 home runs
Diamondbacks vs. Kyle Freeland (Projected total: 5.3)
The Diamondbacks are not as cheap as I normally like for my value-stack especially if you include Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar in your stack as both guys are super expensive but even with those guys they are still affordable and the match-up is just too good for me to pass over. The Diamondbacks get the pleasure of teeing off against Kyle Freeland. Freeland is just not a good pitcher and while his numbers are better on the road than they are at Coors they are still awful. This season, Freeland has a FIP of 4.88, a WHIP of 1.45 and an HR/9 rate of 1.55 in his road starts. Freeland has also struggled majorly against the Diamondbacks this season. Now I know each of his three starts against the Diamondbacks came at Coors but even with that Freeland has allowed 18 runs on 24 hits with seven home runs in just 15 innings of work.
Yesterday’s results- Angels: 7 runs, 13 hits, 7 walks, 1 home run
Astros vs. Spencer Turnbull (Projected total: 6.2)
The Astros have the highest projected run total on this slate but might not be the great stack that their Vegas odds will lead you to believe as they take on Spencer Turnbull who is a solid pitcher. Turnbull has only allowed more than three earned runs in three of his 22 starts this season and comes into tonight’s contest with a FIP of 3.93, an HR/9 rate of 0.80 and a WHIP of 1.34. Turnbull has also pitched better on the road this season than at home. The Astros are also a right-hand heavy team with only three left-handed hitters in their lineup and Turnbull is really good against righties only allowing them to slash .214/.291/.329 with a .271 wOBA this season. With that being said I still think you do need some exposure to them tonight as they are still the Astros and one of the best hitting teams in the majors against right-handed pitching. This season the Astros have the fifth-highest team wOBA, fourth-highest team ISO and highest team wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Yesterday’s results- N/A
Good luck today! If you have any questions, you can follow and send me questions on Twitter @zachsgotmoxy.