SPENDING DOWN TO WIN
This week features some high priced fighters with bigger than usual potential to score in DFS contests. Managing your salaries will be a key to lineup construction on Saturday and you cannot overpay for fighters who won’t deliver. Let’s take a look at fighters you may want to pass on this week and some cheaper alternatives available.
HANNAH CIFERS (DK $ 9,200) – Hannah faces Jodie Esquibel who in three tries has yet to verge victorious within the octagon. Cifers is currently sitting as the second biggest favorite of the evening. While she may be a good bet to win, she doesn’t have the scoring potential I’d like for a fighter at this price. She is 1-1 in the UFC and has a FPPF of 47.0. At her salary, less than a 100 point result is just not acceptable. In her lone UFC victory (a split decision victory over Polyana Viana) she scored only 73.5 fantasy points. This fight is currently -450 to go to a decision. The oddsmakers aren’t expecting an early finish here, and without that Cifers can’t be counted on to score enough to bring any value to her price tag.
Caveman’s advice: Spend down on CORY SANDHAGEN (DK $8,700) instead. He is averaging 115.4 FPPF and is currently the fourth biggest favorite on Saturday. He brings more bang for less buck. I have him ranked as the second best value on Saturday.
(At the time of this writing, Hannah Cifers is -287 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 74.74 on Fantasy Cruncher. Cory Sandhagen is -222 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 68.00 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
DRAKKAR KLOSE (DK $9,000) – Klose is the favorite against Christos Giagos but is priced much too high to play. He is 4-1 inside the octagon with an average of 59.1 FPPF. In his four victories he averaged 65.75 points and his best fantasy performance to date was 74.0 points in his UFC debut over two and a half years ago. Any fighter with a salary beginning in “9” needs to have better scoring promise than that. His last 7 fights have gone the distance and there is little reason to expect an early conclusion bonus for Klose on Saturday.
Caveman’s advice: Save money and play STIPE MIOCIC (DK $7,700) instead. Stipe did lose his last fight to Daniel Cormier who he fights again on Saturday, but is only a slight underdog. The risk of a repeat is certainly there, but Stipe’s ceiling is as high as any fighter you’ll ever see under $8K in salary. He averages 90.7 FPPF and has scored over 100 points in seven of his last nine fights. If he can avoid another DC KO, he will have five rounds of scoring potential.
(At the time of this writing, Drakkar Klose is -168 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 62.96 on Fantasy Cruncher. Stipe Miocic is +116 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 62.85 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
SABINA MAZO (DK $8,000) – At $200 less in salary than her opponent, Mazo will take the octagon against Shana Dobson as the favorite on Saturday. This is typically an ideal situation in DFS, but once again she lacks the scoring potential I would like to see from a fighter at $8K in salary. In her only UFC fight to date, she put up only 32.0 fantasy points in a losing effort. In her professional history, she did pull of two first round KO’s but every other fight she’s had has gone the distance. This fight is -345 to go the distance and doesn’t give me much hope for an early conclusion bonus.
Caveman’s advice: Spend down and put PAULO COSTA (DK $7,600) in your lineups. He has an average of 106.1 FPPF over three UFC fights. He is undefeated in the octagon and is only a slight underdog at a low salary. His scoring potential at that price makes him a great value on Saturday.
(At the time of this writing, Sabina Mazo is -133 with the oddsmakers, and has a projected score of 61.46 on Fantasy Cruncher. Paulo Costa is +119 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 50.42 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!