DraftKings MMA Mixed Martial Arts DFS Analysis Picks Plays Advice Strategy

UFC ON ESPN 5 – August 3, 2019

SEARCHING FOR SCORES

Scoring looks to be low this week and the key to DFS contests will to be finding the best potential for fantasy points. Three fights get a deeper look in this week’s insights.

TREVIN GILES (DK $8,500) vs GERALD MEERSCHAERT (DK $7,700)

Betting odds make Giles the 6th biggest favorite this week and DraftKings has him sitting at 9th in salary. He has the third highest FPPF of any fighter on the evening. Meerschaert is coming off of 2 consecutive losses. Giles also lost his last fight but had two KO/TKO’s in the previous two fights where he averaged 111.75 fantasy points in his victories. Meerschaert has 20 submissions to his credit and poses a threat to finish at any point of the fight. Giles lone loss was by submission.

Caveman’s advice: Giles is undervalued and that presents opportunity. At $8,500 in salary he has the potential to put up scoring on the level of the fighters priced much higher. Meerschaert has a chance to submit, however, and may prove to be an under the radar type play here. Give this fight a lot of love. I would play this fight in 60-70% of multi-entry lineups with Giles getting the better of a 70/30 split.

(At the time of this writing, Trevin Giles is -171 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 63.06 on Fantasy Cruncher. Gerald Meerschaert is +143 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 46.70 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

DARKO STOSIC (DK $8,400) vs KENNEDY NZECHUKWU (DK $7,800)

When in doubt, adhere to the platitude “the bigger they are the harder they fall.” There aren’t many bright spots this week in way of early finish potential. When the two biggest fighters of the night come together there will always be the possibility of a knockout. These fighters have combined for 19 professional victories with 12 of those coming by KO/TKO. The fighters are very closely matched and Stosic is the slightest of favorites in this one.

Caveman’s advice: There are few opportunities for early finish bonuses like this fight on Saturday. Take advantage of the lack of notoriety and leverage this fight to your advantage against the field. Although these fighters have a combined record of 1-2 in the UFC, someone has to win. I like the potential for a big score by knockout this fight provides and recommend 70-80% exposure of this fight. Stosic is a small favorite but Nzechukwu’s small salary make him the more enticing play and he should get a 60/40 edge in lineups in multi-entry contests.

(At the time of this writing, Darko Stosic is -122 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 58.88 on Fantasy Cruncher. Kennedy Nzechukwu is -101 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 54.87 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

COLBY COVINGTON (DK $9,000) vs ROBBIE LAWLER ($7,200)

Main Event fights are always more valuable due to the extra rounds of fighting. I have this fight as the highest scoring fight of the evening by a good margin. Colby Covington has the highest FPPF of any fighter on Saturday and is one of only four fighters favored better than -200 money line odds. Lawler has proven himself to be a very tough fighter and should give Covington a challenge. Despite losing 3 of his last 4, Lawler’s losses in that stretch were against elite fighters Tyron Woodley and Rafael dos Anjos as well as a controversial stoppage against Ben Askren. In that stretch he defeated Donald Cerrone. Of Covington’s 14 victories, half were by decision.

Caveman’s advice: The potential for five rounds is high in this fight and that means five rounds of scoring versus three rounds for the other fighters on Saturday. Covington is a clear favorite here, but Lawler’s potential to compete at such a low salary give him value. I like Lawler as a cash play for his small salary and decent floor. In multi-entry play I would give this fight 80-90% exposure and divide those lineups 70/30 in favor of Covington.

(At the time of this writing, Colby Covington is -242 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 89.53 on Fantasy Cruncher. Robbie Lawler is +200 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 53.97 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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