DraftKings MMA Mixed Martial Arts DFS Analysis Picks Plays Advice Strategy

UFC 240 – July 27, 2019

DFS POP QUIZ


This week’s article will be a departure from our typical format. Rather than analyzing key fights and discussing exposures, we will focus on DFS strategy specific to this week’s slate.

Pop quiz:

1. Four fighters priced over $9,000 carry an average of 90+ FPPF (fantasy points per fight) this week. How many do you play in your lineups?

A) 1

B) 2

C) 3

D) Play them all

2. Three fighters this week are favored to win inside the distance this week. Who do you sit?

A) Geoff Neal

B) Max Holloway

C) Chris Cyborg

D) Play them all

3. Two fighters have 109+ FPPF. Who is the better play?

A) Viviane Araujo

B) Felicia Spencer

Answers:

  1. B – For most MMA contests, I would say the answer would be 1 OR 2 but because of the big FPPF numbers for fighters priced over $9,000 this week, it would be in your best interest to get as many lineups as possible with two of these fighters. In MME contests, at least half of your lineups should carry two of these fighters. I would aim for more line 60-70% of lineups with two. Carrying three fighters at this price, however, is just too expensive as it will leave you with nothing but scrubs to fill out the rest of your lineups.
  2. C – Remember that in fantasy, it isn’t just about likelihood to win. It’s always a balance between scoring potential and cost. I really like Cyborg this week. I think she has a lot of potential to put up a big number. Her salary is just so massive. I think she belongs in a lot of lineups this week, but if I’m only making one lineup, she would be the one I sit. Geoff Neal has a better FPPF at $600 less in salary. Max Holloway lands significant strikes at a furious pace and is scheduled for 5 rounds. Finally, Cyborg’s opponent, Felicia Spencer, is the cheapest fighter of the night despite being 1-0 in the octagon with her 109.0 fantasy point performance in her UFC debut. In MME contests, she’s going to get some lineups from me due to her ceiling potential at a bargain price.
  3. A… but also B – There are two big differences between these fighters on Saturday. Opponent and salary. The are both 1-0 and scored 109.0 and 109.5 in their debuts. Viviane Araujo, however, isn’t fighting Cris Cyborg. Felicia Spencer is. As I already stated, however, fantasy is about a balance between scoring potential and cost. At $9,100 in salary, Araujo must put up a good score to justify her place in lineups. Spencer gets a lot more forgiveness at only $6,600 because her salary will afford you the opportunity to spend a little more elsewhere when she’s in the lineup. Anything can happen in the octagon and Spencer does has one first round submission to her credit. I’m going to play Araujo slightly more often in MME contests but Spencer will earn lineups based on her price.

The goal of this week’s MMA insights is to get the reader to think more about why we like certain fighters every week. The flash of some big knockout fighters should always be measured by their cost. This week has several high priced fighters with big pontential and decisions must be made to construct lineups under the salary cap. When making those decisions, you are always weighing a fighter’s value. Value in MMA can be described as that balance between a fighter’s scoring potential and their cost. Keep that in mind this week when building your lineups and start applying that reasoning to your lineups in the future.

Bonus advice: Two plays I’m in love with this week – Max Holloway and Gillian Robertson.

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

 

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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