PLAYING MME CONTESTS WITH HIGHER THAN USUAL UNPREDICTABILITY
On the 50th anniversary of the first moon landing, the UFC lands in San Antonio for more action on Saturday. I make this week’s fights to be very closely matched in comparison to most weeks in the UFC. For this reason, the collection of lineups used in MME contests should feature a large number of fighters being used with a fair amount of exposure in these contests. It is best to cover as many bases as possible in unpredictable contests. I recommend using 15-20% randomness in your crunches to make sure you have a diverse group of lineups and I would give the majority of the fighters 30-40% exposure with a few fighters getting less and a few getting more. I have selected three fights with fighters that land outside of the 30-40% exposure range for MME contests.
This fight is favored to end in under 2.5 rounds. In his last five fights, Dan Hooker has one defeat to Edson Barboza and four finishes with two first round KO’s. Hooker has the third highest FPPF of any fighter on Saturday and has the fourth shortest odds to finish inside the distance of all fighters Saturday. Vick is coming off of two losses but does have three finishes in his last six fights with one first round finish. This fight has good potential for an early conclusion bonus. These fighters combine for the second highest FPPF of any fight on Saturday.
Caveman’s advice: For my money, Dan Hooker is priced well and will get more exposure than most fighters in this one. He brings great finishing potential to a card with few bright spots. Given the parity this week, I’m going to play him harder than I would normally in order to find an edge against the field. I’m not letting Vick go without some love but will limit his exposure to 20% while giving Hooker a health 60-70% exposure.
(At the time of this writing, Dan Hooker is -143 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 60.19 on Fantasy Cruncher. James Vick is +119 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 51.19 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
This fight is favored to finish under 1.5 rounds and figures to provide good fantasy scoring for the winner. Both fighters are 1-1 but Adams carries the higher FPPF AT 75.3 compared to Hardy’s 55.8. This is due primarily to the fact that Adams lands a great deal more significant strikes than Hardy. Hardy landed 86 significant strikes in his victory over Chris de la Rocha and managed to land 81 significant strikes in a losing effort to Arjan Bhullar. Adams carries a higher floor and has shown the better scoring potential of the two fighters.
Caveman’s advice: When fighters carry the same salary, it is best to favor the fighter who has shown the ability to score more. Adams is that fighter in this case. Although Hardy does have a first round finish to his credit, he carries a lower average. I’m going to use both fighters more than most, however. I will give Hardy 40% exposure and will give 50-60% exposure to Adams.
(At the time of this writing, Juan Adams is -110 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 55.13 on Fantasy Cruncher. Greg Hardy -112 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 55.94 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Felipe Colares offers the longest odds of any fighter on Saturday. In his octagon debut he lost to Geraldo de Freitas scoring a paltry 37.5 fantasy points. He faces Pilarte who is coming off of five consecutive victories including two first round finishes and a second round finish in the Contender Series over Vince Morales. Pilarte will have both a three inch height advantage and reach advantage over Colares.
Caveman’s advice: I can’t suggest playing Pilarte too heavily at his salary but think he should get 30-40% exposure. Colares, on the other hand, falls far below average exposure for me. I would use him sparingly. Give him 10% exposure at most.
(At the time of this writing, Domingo Pilarte is -350 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 74.34 on Fantasy Cruncher. Felipe Corales is +275 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 38.43 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!