Analyzing the starting pitching landscape for July 15 MLB DFS contests.
Clayton Kershaw @ PHI – Kershaw and the Dodgers check in as -155 favourites, playing on the road in Philidelphia against the Phillies, who check in with a .323 wOBA against LHP to go along with a 21.1% strike-out rate – both of which are respectable numbers. Kershaw started the season slow – but since the end of May, has pitched to a 2.68 ERA to go along with an opponents wOBA of .268 while striking out 8 batters per nine. He’s a little bit more expensive than I would like to see – but is a high floor option if you want to lock in what should be above average production from your SP tonight, and look for value elsewhere to round out your line-up.
Lucas Giolito @ KC – Giolito faces the Royals tonight, who rank 21st in the league in terms of wOBA against RHP, checking in with a .309 mark. They rank in the middle of the pack with a 22.8% strike-out rate, putting Giolito in an above average match-up in terms of opponent tonight. He owns a 3.15 ERA, and while he has been a little fortunate with his surface stats, he owns an above average SIERA of 3.91 to go along with 10.8 K/9 on the season. He’s pricey, but I like his chances of having a strong start tonight against the Royals.
Rick Porcello vs. TOR – Porcello has been struggling of late, but draws a match-up with the Jays tonight, who own a .297 wOBA against RHP on the season to go along with the 8th highest strike-out rate, 24.8%. He’s cheap, Boston are large favourites in this one – and I like Porcello’s chances of having one of the top ROI’s on his price tonight. He’s a great value option for the Main Slate.
Daily Dice Rolls
Luis Castillo @ CHC – Castillo draws a tough match-up tonight, going up against the potent Cubs line-up, as they rank 5th in baseball with a .339 wOBA against RHP on the season. With that said, Castillo has been elite all season long, and has the ability to navigate his way through the most difficult line-ups in baseball with great ease – as he did last time that he faced the Cubs. He’s expensive, and with the tough match-up, there is risk here – but you have a shot at getting a low owned elite arm, one with 10.9 K/9 on the season to go along with a WHIP of 1.03 on the year – both of which are elite numbers.
Griffin Canning vs. HOU – Canning has struggled with the long-ball so far in his young MLB career, but he does a great job of missing bats and throwing strikes, making him an intriguing game theory option any chance you have to roster him with projected low ownership levels. That should precisely be the case tonight against the Astros, who do a great job of putting the bat on the ball against RHP (18.4% strike-out rate to go along with a .334 wOBA against them). While there is risk, I think that Canning and his 9.35 K/9 could very well play tonight, especially from a game theory standpoint if you are looking for an attractive value arm.