DraftKings MMA Mixed Martial Arts DFS Analysis Picks Plays Advice Strategy

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 155 – July 13, 2019

THE WOMEN OF UFC FIGHT NIGHT IN SACRAMENTO


We take a look at three women’s bouts that present good opportunity for DFS contests this week in Sacramento.

JULIANNA PENA (DK $9,000) vs NICCO MONTANO (DK $7,200)

These two fighters have the highest combined FPPF of the night. These numbers are skewed quite a bit by Montano’s sole number being 158.0 FP against Roxanne Modafferi in December of 2017. In that fight, she scored 186 significant strikes, 5 advances and 3 takedowns in her 5 round unanimous decision. I can’t see her repeating these numbers against a fighter of Pena’s quality. Montano has one victory in the octagon against a fighter without much of a resume (aside from a defeat of Antonina Shevchenko) while Pena is 4-1 in the UFC with quality victories over Cat Zingano and Jessica Eye and her only loss coming to the best in the class, Valentina Shevchenko. Over a much more significant sample size she carries an 82.7 FPPF. Neither fighter has fought since 2017 and there figures to be some rust on both sides of this one.

Caveman’s advice: This fight shows scoring promise as both fighters have shown the ability to score big numbers in fantasy contests. I do figure both fighters to be a little slow on the start given the long layoff since their last fights, but over three rounds I like the winner of this fight to put up points. Given Pena’s superior experience against much tougher competition, I make Pena the much better play here but will reserve lineups in multi-entry contests for Montano due to her low salary and a proven ability to land significant strikes in large numbers. Give this fight 50-60% exposure with an 80/20 split in favor of Pena. Pena is the much better cash play here.

BRIANNA VAN BUREN (DK $8,200) vs LIVINHA SOUZA (DK $8,000)

Van Buren will make her UFC debut against one of the scariest women in the planet in Livinha Souza. In her last fight, Souza just edged Sarah Frota in a fight where she was a significant favorite. Perhaps, the oddsmakers are cautious for this reason but I don’t see why Van Buren is a slight favorite here. Souza will carry a five inch height advantage and has the potential to keep the 5’0″ Van Buren from being too much of a threat. Van Buren does bring above average strength to the strawweight division, but her lack of length will put her at a disadvantage on her feet and Souza’s grappling (she has eight wins by submission) is superior as well. Van Buren’s best chance is to land with power and she will have to bulldoze her way through Souza to do that.

Caveman’s advice: This fight does have potential to finish early as Van Buren will have to engage Souza to have any chance here. If she can land the right strike, she may have a chance to finish Souza. The more likely scenario, however, is that Souza will find a submission. I like Souza’s potential to score strikes against the shorter Van Buren and a fight that goes the distance will likely favor Souza. I make this fight a sleeper for scoring potential and recommend using it in 30-50% of lineups with a 75/25 split favoring Souza. I would lay off this fight in cash, however.

ASPEN LADD (DK $8,900) vs GERMAINE DE RANDAMIE (DK $7,300)

This fight has the second highest combined FPPF of the evening. The odds are relatively close on this one, but for scoring in DFS contests, Aspen Ladd carries the big potential. She is the only fighter on Saturday with more than one UFC fight to carry an average over 100 FPPF. In her three fights, she has scored no less than 94.0 fantasy points. Given that this one is scheduled for five rounds, the scoring potential for both fighters is high. I think both fighters will carry good value as their salaries are priced right for their respective potentials to score. Germaine de Randamie is coming of four consecutive victories and will be Ladd’s toughest opponent to date.

Caveman’s advice: DFS contests are about scoring and Aspen Ladd puts up points. De Randamie is priced low enough to earn play in MME contests, however. Over five rounds, the winner of this fight will put up good numbers. Ladd priced under $9K makes her solid value on Saturday and she will get the majority of play from me. She is also the top cash play of the week. Give this fight heavy exposure. In MME contests I’m playing this fight in 70-80% of my lineups with an 90/10 split in favor of Ladd.

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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