Analyzing the starting pitching landscape for June 26 MLB DFS contests.
Patrick Corbin @ MIA – Corbin currently sits as the slate’s lowest opponent total arm (3.4 runs) with a healthy 58% road win% against the lowly Marlins. They continue to have some of the weakest overall offensive numbers in the game, but have been managing the Ks to a good clip (22% vs LHP). Corbin himself isn’t in tip top shape right now (4.80 SIERA in his last 4 starts), but maintains healthy raw stuff metrics. If spending up, he’s a fairly safe play although not a must-start for me in GPPs especially given the ceiling is a tad lower with how the match-up comes together.
Matt Boyd vs TEX – He and Mike Minor face off against one another in what is a battle of the breakout lefties of 2019. His 3.18 SIERA over the last month is the best on the slate, and his 12.2 K/9 in that time sits at the top of the board in that regard, too. Couple that with the TEX splits vs LHP being very soft (.295 wOBA; 26% K%) compared to how well they hit RHP and you can see why I’m excited to recommend him. Our FC Pro feature does indicate that Boyd could lead the slate on FD in particular in own%, but I have a feeling that mark will still be under 20% when all is said and done.
Framber Valdez vs PIT – One of the best values on the slate in my eyes (and who I’d trot out there if fading Corbin, Boyd or Morton on FD/SP2 on DK), getting a PIT team who is soft against LHP. He brings an elite GB skill (69% in his last 3 starts) with a great 3.48 SIERA and 9.3 K/9 in that time. For some reason he’s priced quite low on both FD and DK despite having a great arsenal and set of recent results over the last month – so don’t be shy to fire him up as a value pivot on FD or SP2 on DK.
Zac Gallen vs WAS – After showing well in his first start at the major league level, Gallen gets another good test against the Nats. Corbin is a viable SP1 consideration on this slate, while Gallen is a high skill prospect who gets to throw at home in a good pitcher’s park, against the Nats in their weaker split (.314 wOBA vs RHP vs .360 wOBA vs LHP). I’m more intrigued with him for SP2 consideration on DK given his price being just a shade over $7K.
Nick Pivetta vs NYM – I’m not crazy about him on this slate compared to guys like Valdez, but he’s a pretty fair comparison to Gallen. With a low-4s SIERA in the last month and ability to strike out a batter an inning, he could warrant some consideration given a 60% win% on the slate (albeit with a 4.7 implied opponent total per Vegas). He’s throwing well since returning from the minors of late, but does not get a “must start” label from me on the slte.
Daily Dice Rolls
Charlie Morton @ MIN – Morton continues to roll for the Rays, and could end up being a very interesting contrarian play in tournaments tonight. His price has him sitting as a top 3 spend on both sites, but at the #3 slot on DK after Minor and Corbin, there’s quite a bit to like here. He’s throwing nearly 7.0 IP per start these days, with excellent K skills, an elite 15% whiff% and neutralized the Twins when they last met. The Minnesota offense is still one of the most dangerous in the game and could turn on a dime against him their second time seeing him in 2019 – but just in case he keeps his strong stretch of performances alive, it’s worth giving him some contrarian GPP love.