BREAKING DOWN THREE KEY FIGHTS FOR DFS CONTESTS ON SATURDAY
After taking last week off, the UFC is back on Saturday as Greenville plays host to some highly anticipated matchups.
Andrea Lee is one of my favorite fighters in the UFC today. I believe that she has excellent striking and solid grappling. She is facing the worst possible matchup here against De La Rosa, however. Montana De La Rosa is one of the few fighters in this weight class who has the potential to submit Lee. Even against top grapplers, Lee’s striking is on a level that never lets ground games see the light of day. De La Rosa has the potential to penetrate Lee’s distance and bring the fight to the mat where she holds the advantage. If Lee can keep that from happening, look for her to accumulate strikes and score well. If De La Rosa can engage Lee on the ground, she becomes a very dangerous fighter with 80% of her victories coming by way of submission. She is currently on a four submission streak including her first three fights since joining the UFC. In either scenario, I like this fight in DFS contests. Only three fighters on this slate carry a FPPF over 90 and these women are two of them.
Caveman’s advice: I don’t mind an aggressive approach with De La Rosa here. At her small salary, she has the potential to separate MME players from the field by giving her extensive exposure. I don’t like her in cash plays, but her ceiling makes her an enticing play in 150 lineup contests. For aggressive players, give her a 75/25 edge in exposure over Lee. For a more conservative approach, I would go closer to a 50/50 split in lineups. I would give this fight 60-80% exposure. The biggest concern here is a fight that gets halted with extensive grappling without an early conclusion bonus. Ultimately, the value on this fight is high due to very reasonable salaries with high scoring potential.
This fight is loaded with intrigue. In his first UFC appearance, Winn comes in as the heavy favorite and as one of only two fighters favored to win inside the distance. It’s understandable why the oddsmakers make him as such with four first round finishes and an undefeated professional record of 5-0 against a fighter who is only 2-4 in the UFC. Buyer beware, however, the two UFC victories Spicely accumulated were by first round submission including a victory over Thiago Santos by rear-naked choke in 2016. Winn’s wrestling skills may be negated by Spicely’s submission threat. With a significant height advantage, Spicley has the potential to keep distance on Winn and force him to shoot for the takedown. On the ground, the bargain priced Spicley carries a submission threat. Winn’s four first round finishes were all by TKO, however, and it won’t be surprising to see the 5’7″ fighter still dominate the striking against the 6’1″ Spicely.
Caveman’s advice: Don’t sleep entirely on Spicely here. Winn is the favorite and he deserves to be but his salary is much higher than I like. Winn’s ceiling is high and he must be played in MME contests but I would bypass him in cash plays. Coming in under $7K, Spicely is priced to play in MME contests when accounting for his submission threat. I would play this fight conservatively with 30-40% exposure and a 80/20 split in favor of Winn. Spicely is filling in at the last minute and his conditioning may be suspect, but when hoping for an early finish, conditioning may not factor in much.
My personal projections make this the highest scoring fight on Saturday. At -250 to finish before the final bell, it presents significant potential for early conclusion bonuses and the fighters combine for the third highest combined FPPF of any fight on the night. When the five round format is taken into consideration, the floor on this fight is likely to be the highest of any fight on Saturday. They have 14 combined submissions between them and their combined significant strike average is 9.83 per minute. This fight should end before five full rounds, but if the fight goes the distance, look for the victor to accumulate fantasy points over 25 minutes of action. Moicano is the lowest priced favorite of all fighters with odds -200 or less. The Korean Zombie posts the second lowest salary of any fighter with a FPPF over 80 and has the 6th highest FPPF of all fighters on Saturday. The salaries on these fighters make them both good value for DFS contests.
Caveman’s advice: I love Main Event fighters in DFS contests. Those extra rounds to accumulate points provide a great safety net to boost their value in lineups. Play this fight heavily. I would give this fight 70-80% exposure and will give the favorite Moicano the edge in lineups with a 70/30 split in MME contests. I like both fighters in cash plays and would consider playing them in the same lineup, but would recommend Moicano alone as the better cash play.
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!