Analyzing the starting pitching landscape for June 19 MLB DFS contests.
Rich Hill vs SF – A 3.0 opponent total and 71% win% has him sitting at the top of the slate in those regards, and the .281 opponent wOBA split (24% K% as well) are incredibly attractive. However, his price is into the upper echelon on the day (not quite Lucas Giolito territory – but just behind him). He’s been dominant against the Giants in this last 2 turns against them, and Drew Pomeranz has been incredibly volatile this year (even though he blanked the Dodgers over 5 IP in his last start). Both he and the lefty below are top plays tonight, and although I’d lean towards the next guy based on price, Hill is the chalky Vegas option thanks to a strong match-up, recent form/track record in the match-up, and a better offense behind him.
Andrew Heaney @ TOR – If not spending up for Hill, Heaney is a guy I’m al after. His 12.5 K/9 in his last 4 starts to go along with a 3.35 SIERA and 16% whiff% combo are top notch – especially for a guy that is under $9K on both sites. We’ve all been witness to how streaky that Jays have been this year (and how few runs they’ve scored in the last little while), and now that they’re without Justin Smoak in the lineup, they have one less on base machine to worry about. This could force Rowdy Tellez and Cavan Biggio into the lineup against a tough lefty who dominates LHBs (.249 wOBA in the last couple years) – making him a high-end option here at a very attractive price.
Daniel Ponce de Leon vs MIA – For under $8K on DK and less than $7K on FD, we can get access to not only the most unique name in baseball (my opinion), but a solid value RHP with some level of appeal on a pretty short SP slate. His 3.4 opponent total and 63% win% are among the best Vegas metrics on the slate, and we all know how weak the Marlins are as an offensive group (.287 wOBA; 24% K% splits vs RHP). His first 9 IP in 2019 have gone very well, with 2 ER, 4 H, 7 BB (red flag) and 10 Ks. However, the 7.33 SIERA and 7% whiff% in that time suggest it could be a bit of a façade. I still think the price on FD in particular, for being one of the only SPs with a sub-3.5 opp total, make him a viable value option despite the risk.
Daily Dice Rolls
Lucas Giolito @ CHC – I have to mention him in the column today, simply because of how elite he’s been lately. A 10.7 K/9, 3.19 SIERA, 17% whiff% and 37% chase% are among the best in the league over the last month – and his price increase to over $11K on each site is indicative of such. However, a game against the Cubs in an NL park is not going to be an easy task by any means. They’re elite against RHP (.337 wOBA) and have some of the lower K% metrics in the split. For a guy as expensive as him, I’d want more of a slam dunk kind of match-up rather than one that has plenty of risk. For that combination of reasons (price and match-up), I see him merely as a risky GPP contrarian option.
Kyle Gibson vs BOS – Another high skill, high risk guy – but one that you don’t have to break the bank to roster. Gibson’s last 4 starts have been tremendous. A 51% GB%, 3.38 SIERA, 17% whiff% and 42% chase% are among the best the RHP has ever put together in a month-long stretch through his career. The Red Sox, albeit at home in MIN, are a tough draw any day of the week. They’re better against RHP than LHP by a good stretch, and have some of the lowest K% splits in the game against righties (21% on the year). I don’t mind Gibson if you want to roll the dice here based on salary and recent form, but a near 5.0 opponent total further shows the risk that we could see 3-4 ER against him and a low K total.