Analyzing the starting pitching landscape for June 14 MLB DFS contests.
Gerrit Cole vs. TOR – The only downside here is the price point and the fact that he is likely to see high ownership levels. The numbers are outstanding (2.59 SIERA, 38.6% K rate for 13.82 K/9) – and the match-up is as good as it gets, as he gets to face the lowly Blue Jays line-up. The Jays are ranked 27th against RHP on the season with a .287 wOBA with the 6th highest strike-out rate, checking in at 24.8%. He is a high floor option that has the highest ceiling on the slate.
Max Scherzer vs. ARI – Blake Snell is an omission here – due to the fact that the Angels don’t strike out against lefties, holding a 16.2% whiff rate on the season. Scherzer is a great ownership pivot off of Cole if you want to go that route. The D-Backs have a middling wOBA of .309 against RHP on the season, and while they do a decent job of putting the bat on the ball (22.9% whiff rate) – Scherzer has swing and miss stuff that is matched by few, if any in the game. With a SIERA of 2.96 to go along with 12.28 K/9 – there is a lot to like about building rosters around Scherzer tonight, especially when you factor in that he should have a fraction of the ownership that Cole has tonight.
Kyle Gibson vs. KC – Gibson has pitched better than his 4.14 ERA indicates, owning a 3.78 SIERA. He strikes out over a batter per inning (9.49 K/9) – and while he doesn’t have the same ceiling that the pitchers in the Top Options section have – he is a great option if you want to spend up on your bats. The Royals are a middle of the pack offence against RHP in terms of wOBA and K rate, and I like Gibson’s chances of having a strong night on Friday.
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. BAL – The match-up is outstanding for E-Rod tonight, facing the Orioles who own a .306 wOBA against LHP to go along with a high punch out rate of 26.1%. Rodriguez has an ERA of 5.00 – but has pitched much better than the surface number indicates. He has 10 K/9 to go along with a SIERA of 3.89, which is more than a full run better. Rodriguez has been a reverse split arm over his career, and with most of the quality sticks that Baltimore has being RH, I like the spot he is in a lot tonight on both 1 and 2 pitcher sites (for his price).
Daily Dice Rolls
Steven Matz vs. STL – Matz has very quietly had an excellent season for the Mets. If you factor in the fact that he has allowed almost half his ER’s in two starts, he has been excellent. There is some blow-up potential if we happen to see another outing like the aforementioned two, but the upside is there. Matz has punched out 9.49 batters per nine – and while the hard contact rate is higher than I’d like, I think that figure (41.9% in 2019) will scare away many from rostering him. The upside is there, but there is risk in rostering Matz. With that said, at his price point, particularly on two pitcher sites, I like the risk/reward profile to rostering Matz tonight.