Analyzing the starting pitching landscape for May 20 MLB DFS contests.
Just a quick note on Mike Soroka. The price is way up for him here and based on the way his metrics have outperformed the skills (0.85 ERA vs 4.22 SIERA) in his last 5 starts – simply do not see the benefit of playing him instead of other better options tonight. You can make stronger use of your dollars if spending up for upper-tier talent on the mound. Avoiding him in favor of a Paddack or Corbin will likely be a highly profitable decision.
Chris Paddack vs ARI – He’s quite possibly the cream of the crop on the slate today. He checks in as the #2 salary SP on FD, and #3 on DK, with immense strikeout upside, the best SIERA in the last month (3.18) and the highest whiff/chase metrics as well (13%/35%). This is the far weaker split for the Diamondbacks, and he should have no issue carving them up on his way to a 7 IP, 7-10 K kind of performance at home in Petco. The 57% win% is probably feeling some downward pressure thanks to SD’s struggles lately and a solid SP on the other side (Luke Weaver) – but he remains an elite target with fantastic skills and attractive match-up that is perfect for just about any DFS contest.
Patrick Corbin @ NYM – He averages the highest IP/GS amongst starters on the slate over the last month (just shy of 7.0) and continues to be an excellent source of strikeouts for the DFS community. NYM has a whopping 30% K% split against LHP this year (low hard hit rate as well of 35%), and he continues to get ground balls at a nice clip, too. For me, it is wise to spend up for either him or Paddack on the slate as high floor, high ceiling options. Corbin has the higher K ceiling given how poor NYM has been in the split, but he is a bit pricier than Paddack which puts them both very much in play.
Brad Peacock vs CWS – Nothing special to write home about here skills-wise, but the White Sox do have some softness against RHP (25% K% split) and HOU will always bring a tremendous lineup to the table. He is a lower-end QS/W candidate on the day despite a 4.55 SIERA in his last 5 starts, and although we don’t have Vegas metrics just yet, I expect him to be a 57%+ favorite here at a price that won’t break the bank (especially if spending down on FD where he’s under $8K).
J.A. Happ @ BAL – Another guy without elite skills that is in a favorable spot, with Happ facing the Orioles on the road. His 64% win% leads the slate (at the moment), but the 4.0 opponent total shows how heavy Vegas is slanting towards the Yankees winning this one out (5.5 team total for them). Happ is nicely priced on both sites if you want to skim a few bucks off the top with your SP, and he’s coming off one of his best starts of the year (5.0 IP, 1 H, 7 K, 0 ER) against a tough SEA ball club. Given how the Orioles struggle vs LHP this year (.288 wOBA; 29% K%; 28% HH%), it wouldn’t surprise me if he keeps the good times rolling here and gets on a good track in 2019 with an attractive situation in front of him.
Daily Dice Rolls
Andrew Cashner vs NYY – It’s a little crazy to pencil him in here in some respects, thanks to a 5.5 opponent total and mere 36% win% at home. However, in his last 4 starts, Cashner is sitting with a very solid 3.66 SIERA, 32% hard hit rate, 11% whiff rate and healthy 9.8 K/9. Not bad numbers for the veteran righty who at times is one of the most obvious “stack against him at all costs!” arms in DFS. He’s got his ground ball rate near 50% in that time, and the Yankees are not nearly back to full health just yet – leaving a bit of exploitability in their lineup. I’m not crazy about him on FD as I think you can do better in his price tier, but on DK as the 2nd cheapest main slate SP under $6K – you can’t go wrong rolling the dice in GPPs as the skills for the dollar, regardless of matchup, are very intriguing.