Analyzing the starting pitching landscape for May 17 MLB DFS contests.
Jacob deGrom @ MIA – As loaded as the slate is today with 15 games, navigating the pitching landscape is actually fairly straightforward in my eyes. The two studs you want to consider paying up for in cash games are deGrom and Scherzer, with deGrom getting the edge given his match-up with the lowly Marlins. His last 4 starts have seen him amass very healthy metrics in the SIERA (3.40), whiff% (17%) and chase (41%) departments. A 2.6 opponent total and elite 67% road win% are phenomenal here, and I fully expect you to be thrilled about rostering him in cash games if you’re able to make it work. GPPs is another story as you’ll be forced to miss out on top hitting talent given how cash-strapped you’ll be. That’s what makes Max and even Cole intriguing for tournaments.
Max Scherzer vs CHC – Scherzer, like Gerrit Cole, are facing some tough opponents tonight. Thankfully, at least on FanDuel, they’re priced a little more appropriately. Scherzer has fantastic metrics in his last 5 starts, with a 2.84 SIERA and 15% whiff rate – and he gets the Cubs at home here (Cole Hamels as his mound foe – a good one, but not someone you need to start on this slate) with a 3.4 opponent total and 60% win%. CHC is a good offensive group, but hasn’t been hitting the cover off the ball against RHP this year (36% HH%) and does have an average K% of 23%.
Joey Lucchesi vs PIT – The cream of the value crop tonight by a country mile, Lucchesi throws at home in Petco against a Pirates team that continues to really struggle against lefties with a .282 wOBA and 27% K% in the split. His season long numbers have not been as representative of the skills, and he has a solid 4.17 SIERA with healthy whiff/chase rates in his last month of work (4 GS) including a 53% ground ball rate. Given a 3.0 opponent total and 62% win% that sits among the best on the slate, the value for the dollar is elite on FD in particular ($6,200) where he’s a no brainer in strategies where you want to stack elite bats.
Frankie Montas @ DET – Montas has some appeal here as a reasonably priced value pivot with a little more raw skill than Lucchesi – albeit for nearly $3K more on FD (only a few hundred bucks more on DK). His 59% win% on the road in Detroit is solid, and his 3.82 SIERA, 12% whiff%, 35% chase% combo in his last 5 starts with a healthy 48% ground ball rate as well showcase the nice set of skills he brings to the table. Thanks to DET’s 26% K% split and sub-.300 wOBA, I have no problem with you running him out there in the right spot.
Daily Dice Rolls
Gerrit Cole @ BOS – I love Cole’s skills today and they’re among the best not only on the slate, but in baseball as a whole. However, a date against the Red Sox in Fenway is no easy task to saddle him with. I do believe the 17% whiff%, 37% chase% and slate-low 2.44 SIERA in the last month can play against just about anyone though, so if you’re looking for a high-skill guy, at a slight price benefit, with low projected ownership – Cole’s got to be your guy.