DraftKings MMA Mixed Martial Arts DFS Analysis Picks Plays Advice Strategy

UFC 237 – May 11, 2019

UFC RETURNS TO BRAZIL


The UFC has a great lineup this Saturday in Rio. We will be taking a look at three key fights that deserve consideration for DFS lineups.

JESSICA ANDRADE (DK $8,300) vs ROSE NAMAJUNAS (DK $7,900)

I am really excited for this fight. It has a lot more intrigue than strawweight fights are supposed to have. As a Main Event, it is an exciting matchup and even more so as a title fight. The fact that the champion is an underdog makes it more exciting yet, and for the life of me, I can’t figure out why Rose is being undervalued here. I completely understand what Andrade is bringing to the table, but I can’t help but think that’s Rose’s sweet face isn’t what makes people expect less of her in the octagon. She goes by “Thug” and shaved her head, but she just isn’t getting her due respect. She’s a great striker with knockout power (click here to see her KO of Joanna Jedrzejczyk if you don’t believe me) and she is an excellent grappler as well. Andrade has similar abilities on a shorter frame. She’s coming off a first round KO in her last fight. I do question her ability to steamroll Namajunas, however. Rose is the taller fighter by 3 inches and has a 3 inch reach advantage as well. In her second fight against Jedrzejczyk, she demonstrates her ability to keep distance against a talented striker who wasn’t at the height disadvantage of Andrade. These two combine for the second highest FPPF total of all fights Saturday and this fight promises to be a worthy Main Event.

Caveman’s advice: Andrade’s last lost came at the hands of Joanna Jedrzejczyk, a fighter Namajunas has beaten twice. I think Namajunas has the edge here. Both fighters are skilled and this fight deserves a lot of play. I have some reservations about a more conservative fight strategy from Rose that could slow down scoring in this one, but over five rounds I like the scoring potential of the eventual winner of the fight. Give this fight 60-80% exposure in MME contests with a 70/30 split in favor of Namajunas and her cheaper salary. For her salary, I make Namajunas the better cash play in this one.

JOSE ALDO (DK $8,400) vs ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI (DK $7,800)

This fight boasts two fighters with the highest combined FPPF of all fights on Saturday. The two fighters have 28 KO/TKO’s between them and betting odds say this fight isn’t going the distance. Both fighters are priced very well considering the scoring potential this fight holds. I always like the chances of Brazilian fighters in Brazil and I have to concur with Aldo being the favorite here. Volkanovski has a high ceiling here, however, and has great potential at a salary under $8K. He is 6-0 against UFC competition with 3 of those wins by KO/TKO. Aldo does have three losses in the UFC but they are quality losses, with two losses to Max Holloway and one to Conor McGregor. This has “Fight of the Night” potential.

Caveman’s advice: This fight should be played heavily. The winner of this fight is hard to predict, but the score posted by the winner should be predictably high. I recommend giving this fight 70-90% exposure in MME contests with an even split between the fighters. I believe the winner of this fight is very likely to show up on top lineups in DFS contests. I would consider using both fighters in tandem for cash game lineups.

RAONI BARCELOS (DK $9,600) vs CARLOS HUACHIN (DK $6,600)

This fight is interesting on paper for DFS contests only. Barcelos is possibly the biggest favorite we will see this year in the UFC. He faces Peruvian Carlos Huachin who will make his UFC debut. He has little to no business debuting against Barcelos who has two early finishes in his UFC career and will fight in his home country on Saturday. With that said, anything can happen in the UFC and Huachin does have eight KO/TKO’s on his professional record. Contrarian players may consider giving Huachin some lineups or at the very least limiting the number of lineups for Barcelos.

Caveman’s advice: Barcelos is a -325 favorite to finish within the distance on Saturday. This has first round stoppage written all over it. For this reason, I can’t in good conscience recommend avoiding this play entirely. I would use some moderation here because of the nosebleed salary of Barcelos. I would give this fight 20-30% play in MME contests with a 90/10 split in favor of Barcelos. It would be entirely reasonable to remove Huachin entirely from your player pool, however. Barcelos is a great cash play but his salary will be limiting.

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

 

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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