The Primer NBA DFS Fantasy Cruncher

The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – April 27, 2019

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on April 27, 2019.

With a 2 game slate tonight, we are going to keep things pretty short and sweet.

Slate Strategy

These 2 game slates don’t leave a lot to write about, other than perhaps some thinking on strategic approach(es) to consider for GPPs.

  • C is a really interesting position tonight, with Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic taking center stage. Between the two, Embiid has the higher raw skill ceiling, but has a very difficult defense challenge ahead against the Raptors and Marc Gasol. For that reason, I would feel Jokic is the safer choice – though Embiid is tempting on DK given the price advantage.
  • Pivoting off the expensive duo leaves you with Jakob Poeltl (who I love for game theory purposes) or Marc Gasol. I doubt Gasol becomes a 35+ FP reliable asset the majority of this series (if at all), as he is squarely the fourth or even fifth option on offense for TOR and will be focused on keeping Embiid at bay. That makes Poeltl a high-ROI, low own% play.
  • Ben Simmons is likely going to be swallowed up by Kawhi Leonard here. For that reason, I would recommend fading him on FD in particular. That leaves us with Jamal Murray and Kyle Lowry as 2 great mid-range targets to go with a heavy degree of exposure to.
  • DeMar DeRozan and Jimmy Butler are two upper-tier talents that I have a lot of time for on this slate. DeMar is going to get a ton of action for SAS as they look to pull out game 7, while Butler has given TOR fits all throughout his career and will have a pretty clear path to USG% and MINs with Embiid and Simmons being key focus points for TOR to neutralize.
  • On the value side at SG, I like Monte Morris and Malik Beasley to have sneaky effective games. Beasley in particular is a great GPP target at his price.
  • Kawhi Leonard is probably going to be the highest owned commodity on this slate, with his track record vs PHI and playoff eliteness so far at a very digestible price. Look for J.J. Redick to have a big game (and series) for PHI at a price you will easily find room for. I also don’t mind James Ennis as a punt if you want to get cute on FD.
  • The PF position is all about Pascal Siakam and Serge Ibaka for me here. Tobias Harris is over-priced, as is LaMarcus Aldridge. Both of those should play heavy minutes, but the value for the dollar with the TOR bigs are where I see you being more profitable.

Best of luck!

Cheat Sheet

$ TierPGSGSFPFC
High
Ben Simmons
(8.1k / 46.72)
(9.4k / 44.88)
(43 / 45.33)
(15k / 46.72)
DeMar DeRozan
(7.5k / 42.00)
(8.5k / 40.35)
(34 / 40.75)
(13.7k / 42.00)
Kawhi Leonard
(8.4k / 51.42)
(9.7k / 49.39)
(40 / 49.89)
(15.9k / 51.42)
Pascal Siakam
(7.4k / 40.51)
(8.3k / 38.91)
(33 / 39.30)
(14k / 40.51)
Nikola Jokic
(10.1k / 56.39)
(11.3k / 54.17)
(44 / 54.71)
(18k / 56.39)
Joel Embiid
(9.9k / 50.47)
(11k / 48.49)
(53 / 48.97)
(18.2k / 50.47)
Medium
Kyle Lowry
(7k / 41.66)
(7.5k / 40.02)
(29 / 40.42)
(13.2k / 41.66)
Jimmy Butler
(6.8k / 42.76)
(7.2k / 41.07)
(32 / 41.48)
(12.6k / 42.76)
Rudy Gay
(5.3k / 27.86)
(5.5k / 26.76)
(18 / 27.03)
(10.5k / 27.86)
Serge Ibaka
(4.6k / 25.87)
(5.3k / 24.85)
(17 / 25.10)
(8.9k / 25.87)
Jamal Murray
(6.3k / 34.03)
(7.7k / 32.69)
(26 / 33.02)
(12.4k / 34.03)
Low
Bryn Forbes
(3.8k / 20.63)
(3.9k / 19.82)
(10 / 20.02)
(7k / 20.63)
Malik Beasley
(3.6k / 17.92)
(3.6k / 17.21)
(10 / 17.38)
(7.1k / 17.92)
J.J. Redick
(4.7k / 27.08)
(4.5k / 26.02)
(16 / 26.28)
(9.2k / 27.08)
Paul Millsap
(5k / 32.71)
(4.8k / 31.42)
(18 / 31.74)
(9.7k / 32.71)
Jakob Poeltl
(4.5k / 28.95)
(5.1k / 27.81)
(10 / 28.08)
(8.6k / 28.95)
Monte Morris
(3.7k / 14.59)
(4.1k / 14.02)
(10 / 14.16)
(7.7k / 14.59)
James Ennis
(3.5k / 14.96)
(3.5k / 14.37)
(10 / 14.51)
(6.8k / 14.96)
Marc Gasol
(5.1k / 31.79)
(5.6k / 30.54)
(20 / 30.84)
(10k / 31.79)

About Jared Kwart

Jared is an expert fantasy sports player for both DFS and season-long formats. Specializing in DFS Baseball, Football & Basketball, with tens of thousands of dollars in career DFS earnings. Active player on FanDuel, DraftKings & FantasyDraft. Annual NFBC high stakes league participant.

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