The Primer NBA DFS Fantasy Cruncher

The Primer – NBA DFS Expert Analysis – April 20, 2019

Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on April 20, 2019.

Vegas Metrics

PHI @ BKN; PHI -1; 231.5

DEN @ SAS; SAS -3; 208

MIL @ DET; MIL -9; 216

HOU @ UTA; UTA -2; 215.5

Slate Strategy Notes

  • With how high the PHI/BKN total is here, as well as a doubtful Joel Embiid, we highly recommend considering some solid exposure here for those of you playing the main slate. May seem obvious, but it’s very important to reiterate given the projected pace and attractive pieces taking center stage in this game. Rolling with 2-3 (DK) / 3-4 (FD) building blocks here could really be a profitable path.
  • A heavier game stack is a viable way to go if you’re really bullish on this total being pushed higher in reality, but often times you won’t see winning GPP lineups on 4 game slates in the NBA Playoffs with a stacking strategy. There is just too much out there, especially with some of the player prices being pushed down to very attractive levels.
  • Generally you will see winning lineups in GPPs with a nice variety of plays from 6-8 teams on a 4 game slate. The FC projections model spits out lineups with representation from 6 teams per our default projections (FD and DK).
  • Keeping an eye on Joel Embiid’s status will be important – especially if you want to attack some PHI pivots as a result. Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, and Tobias Harris get major boosts. As does Boban Marjanovic and Greg Monroe who started last game and played 25 quality minutes (32.1 FDP).

PHI/BKN Targets

Primary Plays – Ben Simmons, D’Angelo Russell, Jimmy Butler, Caris LeVert (DK)

Secondary Plays – Greg Monroe (if Embiid is out as expected), Boban Marjanovic, Spencer Dinwiddie (FD), Joe Harris (FD; just because SF is so darn thin tonight)

DEN/SAS Targets

Primary Plays – Derrick White, Jamal Murray (DK), DeMar DeRozan

Secondary Plays – Nikola Jokic (pricey but could hit 50+ points again), Paul Millsap, Gary Harris (FD), Malik Beasley (low own GPP)

MIL/DET Targets

Primary Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Eric Bledsoe (elite DK value), Khris Middleton

Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard (FD), Sterling Brown

HOU/UTA Targets

Primary Plays – James Harden (pricey but could see +3-5 minutes in UTA and be a beast), Chris Paul, Ricky Rubio

Secondary Plays – Derrick Favors (DK only), Eric Gordon (FD), P.J. Tucker


$ TierPGSGSFPFC
High
Ben Simmons
(8.5k / 48.40)
(10.3k / 46.50)
(45 / 46.96)
(15.6k / 48.40)
James Harden
(10.8k / 58.17)
(11.7k / 55.88)
(60 / 56.44)
(19.2k / 58.17)
Giannis Antetokounmpo
(10.5k / 59.33)
(11.5k / 56.99)
(56 / 57.56)
(18.8k / 59.33)
Tobias Harris
(6.5k / 39.49)
(7.7k / 37.93)
(29 / 38.31)
(12.2k / 39.49)
Nikola Jokic
(9.3k / 53.82)
(10.4k / 51.70)
(43 / 52.22)
(17.4k / 53.82)
DeMar DeRozan
(7.9k / 41.49)
(9.4k / 39.85)
(36 / 40.25)
(14.8k / 41.49)
Medium
Chris Paul
(7k / 39.80)
(7.9k / 38.24)
(31 / 38.62)
(13.6k / 39.80)
Jimmy Butler
(7.2k / 43.74)
(7.8k / 42.02)
(35 / 42.44)
(13.8k / 43.74)
Paul Millsap
(5.5k / 33.59)
(6k / 32.26)
(20 / 32.59)
(10.8k / 33.59)
Eric Bledsoe
(6.6k / 37.75)
(8k / 36.27)
(32 / 36.63)
(12.1k / 37.75)
D'Angelo Russell
(8.1k / 37.84)
(8.1k / 36.35)
(36 / 36.71)
(15.4k / 37.84)
P.J. Tucker
(4.5k / 21.55)
(5.3k / 20.70)
(13 / 20.91)
(8.6k / 21.55)
Jamal Murray
(6.3k / 33.11)
(7.3k / 31.80)
(24 / 32.12)
(12.4k / 33.11)
Khris Middleton
(6.8k / 35.61)
(7.6k / 34.21)
(33 / 34.55)
(12.4k / 35.61)
Ricky Rubio
(6k / 32.32)
(7.1k / 31.04)
(22 / 31.35)
(11.8k / 32.32)
Low
Derrick White
(5.7k / 30.61)
(6.5k / 29.40)
(20 / 29.70)
(11.3k / 30.61)
Caris LeVert
(5.5k / 27.32)
(6.4k / 26.24)
(21 / 26.51)
(10.6k / 27.32)
Joe Harris
(4.4k / 22.37)
(4k / 21.49)
(11 / 21.71)
(8.6k / 22.37)
Ersan Ilyasova
(3.4k / 16.62)
(4k / 15.97)
(10 / 16.13)
(6.6k / 16.62)
Jakob Poeltl
(4k / 27.18)
(4.9k / 26.11)
(10 / 26.37)
(7.5k / 27.18)
Gary Harris
(5.3k / 26.88)
(5.6k / 25.82)
(15 / 26.08)
(10.2k / 26.88)
Rudy Gay
(5.1k / 26.92)
(5.2k / 25.86)
(19 / 26.12)
(10.5k / 26.92)
Boban Marjanovic
(4.9k / 26.20)
(5.8k / 25.17)
(11 / 25.42)
(9.6k / 26.20)
Sterling Brown
(4.4k / 20.30)
(3.9k / 19.50)
(13 / 19.69)
(8.9k / 20.30)
Greg Monroe
(4.3k / 27.00)
(5.3k / 25.93)
(11 / 26.19)
(8.2k / 27.00)
Malik Beasley
(3.8k / 19.35)
(4.7k / 18.59)
(11 / 18.78)
(7.4k / 19.35)

About Jared Kwart

Jared is an expert fantasy sports player for both DFS and season-long formats. Specializing in DFS Baseball, Football & Basketball, with tens of thousands of dollars in career DFS earnings. Active player on FanDuel, DraftKings & FantasyDraft. Annual NFBC high stakes league participant.

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