Featuring in-depth analysis to help you crack the winning code for the NBA DFS slate on April 18, 2019.
76ers @ Nets
Projected total: 227.5 with the 76ers 2.5 point road favorites
Series tied 1-1
The key to the 76ers is if Joel Embiid is going to play and how many minutes he is going to play. Embiid is only averaging 22 minutes in this series and we know he is going to get his as he is averaging 22.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, three blocks+steals and 47.75 fantasy points despite playing the limited minutes. The question with Embiid’s status is how it is going to affect the other guys on the 76ers mainly Jimmy Butler and Boban Marjanovic. If Embiid is out or limited once again both of those guys are in play and Butler would be an elite play as he has a usage rate of 38.2% and is averaging two fantasy points per minute with Embiid off the court this series which is a 14.8% increase in usage and 0.8 fantasy points more per minute. J.J. Redick would also get a huge boost if Embiid were limited or out once again as he has seen an increase in usage of 8.6% in this series.
Primary players to target: Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler (If Joel Embiid is out), Mike Scott, Joel Embiid
Secondary players to target: J.J. Redick, Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler (If Joel Embiid plays), Boban Marjanovic (If Joel Embiid is out)
D’Angelo Russell has not played well in this series and has failed to produce over 35 fantasy points in both games while averaging just 26 fantasy points but that doesn’t actually bother me as his usage rate has been an insane 40.4%. At that usage rate, sooner or late Russell is going to start to produce. Outside of Russell the only other Nets player that has caught my eye this series is Caris LeVert. LeVert is only playing minutes in the low 20’s through the first two games of this series but has been excellent when on the court as he is averaging 1.27 fantasy points per minute. The injury to Jared Dudley also bares watching tonight. With Dudley out and Ed Davis banged up Rondae Hollis-Jefferson went from a DNP-CD to playing 19 minutes though the blowout factor could have contributed to some of those minutes as well.
Primary players to target: D’Angelo Russell
Secondary players to target: Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie
Nuggets @ Spurs
Projected total: 210.5 with Spurs 3.5 point home favorites
Series tied 1-1
Nikola Jokic is averaging a triple-double through the first two games of this series and has produced at least 50 fantasy points in each of the two games. Jokic is my favorite stud player on this slate and is a lock button play for me as I don’t see the Spurs slowing him down. The other Nuggets player that has really stood out to me through the first two games of the series is Gary Harris. Harris has scored at least 20 points in both games and has produced at least 28 fantasy points in both games.
Primary players to target: Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Nikola Jokic
Secondary players to target: Will Barton, Paul Millsap
DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge as expected have been the players the Spurs have been riding this series. Both players are averaging over 35 minutes in this series and both players have a usage rate over 29%. DeRozan has been playing a lot better than Aldridge has to start the series but both players are elite plays for me tonight. The rest of the Spurs are kind of blah to me with Derrick White being the only one that I am making a priority to have exposure to but even then it will not be a lot of exposure and he is just a secondary option.
Primary players to target: DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge
Secondary players to target: Derrick White
Warriors @ Clippers
Projected total: 236.5 with Warriors 8.5 point road favorites
Series tied 1-1
A lot has been made about the injury to DeMarcus Cousins but that injury means nothing to me when it comes to the Warriors. The Warriors have been better all season long with Cousins on the bench and he was going to lose minutes as the playoffs went on anyways. This just speeds up the process and makes it more likely we see the Warriors Death Lineup of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala for more than the ten minutes we have seen so far in this series. As always the Warriors are a hard team to target as we really don’t know which of their star players are going to go off. With that being said I love Kevin Durant tonight as I have a feeling he has a huge game after his bad game two in which he had more turnovers than shot attempts.
Primary players to target: Andre Iguodala, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green
Secondary players to target: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson
While the Clippers managed to steal game two somehow some way I don’t think this game tonight is particularly close as I feel the Warriors come out and make a statement. With that being said if the Clippers do manage to stay close in this game or even win it is going to be on the backs of Lou Williams who is averaging 51 fantasy points in this series and Montrezl Harrell who has produced at least 38 fantasy points in both of the first two games. Those are the two Clippers players that I would make a priority on this slate if you make any Clippers players a priority.
Primary players to target: Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell
Secondary players to target: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Patrick Beverly, Danilo Gallinari