DraftKings MMA Mixed Martial Arts DFS Analysis Picks Plays Advice Strategy

UFC ON ESPN 2 – March 30, 2019

SPENDING ON TOP TIER FIGHTERS FOR DFS CONTESTS THIS WEEK


The UFC heads to Philadelphia this week. This week will take a look at fighters over $9,000 in salary and discuss which fighters deserve the most play in DFS contests.

RAY BORG (DK $9,400) – Very few fighters fare well when facing Demetrious Johnson. In Borg’s last fight, he managed to go nearly five rounds with “Mighty Mouse”. In that loss, he managed only 24.5 fantasy points while landing a paltry 13 significant strikes. Over his last four fights, he is 2-2 averaging 48.0 FPPF. In his UFC career he caries an average of 68.2 FPPF. He will be facing Casey Kenney who will be making his UFC debut but carries an impressive professional record of 11-1. Current prop odds make him +259 to win inside the distance.

(At the time of this writing, Ray Borg is -273 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 70.82 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

DESMOND GREEN (DK $9,300) – Green is the heaviest favorite on the card this week. He hasn’t fared very well since entering the UFC, with a record of 2-3 in the octagon. He will take on UFC veteran Ross Pearson who is 12-13 with one no contest in the octagon. Green carries a disappoint average of 41.7 FPPF against UFC competition. In his two victories, he put up 63.5 and 68.5 fantasy points. His last early finish came in March of 2016 before he entered the UFC. Current prop odds make him +467 to win inside the distance.

(At the time of this writing, Desmond Green is -444 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 76.12 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

ALEX PEREZ (DK $9,200) – In his last fight, Perez lost by first round TKO scoring on 12.0 fantasy points. Despite this disappointing total, in his four UFC fights, he is 3-1 carrying the highest average FPPF of any fighter over $9,000 in salary at 804. He is 3-1 in the octagon, including 142.0 fantasy points in a first round annihilation of Jose Torres in August of 2018. He will be fighting Mark De La Rosa who is 2-1 against UFC competition. Current prop odds make him +150 to win inside the distance.

(At the time of this writing, Alex Perez is -341 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 73.64 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

MARINA RODRIGUEZ (DK $9,100) – Rodriguez has on UFC fight under her belt. In that fight she had to settle for a draw after going the distance. In that fight she scored 35.0 fantasy points. She will fight against Jessica Aguilar who has a record of 1-3 in the UFC. She will be the significant favorite despite not having yet earned her first victory in the octagon. Current prop odds make her +415 to win inside the distance.

(At the time of this writing, Marina Rodriguez is -337 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 76.77 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

When looking to construct lineups in DFS, choosing more than one fighter above the $9,000 level is very limiting for the rest of your lineup. This week’s top salary fighters show little potential outside of Alex Perez. When playing MME contests, consider a low percentage of lineups using more than one fighter in this range. I would give a good percentage of lineups to Perez and minimal exposure to the other three fighters in this range. Instead spend more in the next tier of fighters who are more promising at a lower salary. Hermansson and Barboza may be smaller favorites, but carry much more potential to score. By limiting lineups to one or even zero fighters above $9,000 you make room to carry up to three fighters in the $8,500 to $9,000 range which shows a great deal of potential.

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

 

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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