FC NASCAR DFS Analysis for NASCAR Racing FanDuel DraftKings 2019 2020 Cash Games GPP Tournaments

STP 500 – March 24, 2019


We’ve been advising you to play Kurt Busch quite a bit this season. It looks like DraftKings has finally caught on putting him at $10,200 this week, over a grand higher than last week. Kyle Busch remains the highest priced driver on both DraftKings and FanDuel, right where he belongs. This week in Martinsville, NASCAR goes to a short track for the first time this season. We’ve identified some value based on driver statistics at short tracks and made our picks for this week based on these numbers. As usual, we’ll give you picks for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

DraftKings Picks

RYAN NEWMAN (DK $6,800) – Ryan’s salary is 21st on DraftKings this week. His FPPR, however, is 15th at 30.43. This week in Martinsville, he goes to a track where he’s had success in the past. Last time he raced there, he scored 53 fantasy points with an 8th place finish back in October. His stock is down coming off of a 22nd place finish at the Auto Club 400 and scoring only 7 fantasy points. As his stock goes down so does his price, and he will race Sunday at a discounted $6,800 salary which is down from $7,300. His potential goes up this week, however, as he returns to the half-mile track at Martinsville where since February of 2017 his average finish is just outside of the 12th place, making him 9th on that list. He is number 10 on the list of all short tracks since February of 2017. He starts in the 21st position.

(Ryan Newman drives the #6 Ford for Roush Fenway Racing.)

CLINT BOWYER (DK $8,400) – He’s coming off a last-place finish last week where he scored -23.0 points at Fontana. He only fell $200 in salary, due in part to his history at short tracks. Last year at the STP 500 he finished in 1st scoring a whopping 145.25 fantasy points while leading 215 laps. He put up the fastest single lap in practice Saturday morning and will start in 11th place on Sunday. Since February of 2017, he has averaged a finishing place of 8.00 at Martinsville putting him 4th on the list. On all short tracks, he has a 6th best average finish of 10.42.

(Clint Bowyer drives the #14 Ford for Stewart-Haas Racing.) 

FanDuel Picks

JIMMIE JOHNSON (FD $9,900) – We’d like it if Jimmie were a bit lower in salary, but we really like his potential on the short track at Martinsville this week. His salary is appropriately 12th highest, however, as he has the 12th highest FPPR on FanDuel. His two-year history on short tracks put him higher than that on our list. He has the 4th highest average finish on short tracks since February 2017. He’s ahead of Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. on that list. He’s yet to have a breakout race this year, but in his last race at Martinsville back in October he put up 90 fantasy points, climbing from 34th all the way up to a 12th point finish. He will start this week in 12th place.

(Jimmie Johnson drives the #48 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports.)

ALEX BOWMAN (FD $8,600) – His averages are down so far this season, due largely in part to his disappointing showing at Phoenix where he finished in 35th place and scored only 10.6 fantasy points. Outside of that finish, he has a promising average of 50.7 FPPR at Fontana, Las Vegas, Atlanta, and Daytona. He should raise his average this week at Martinsville where he has the 8th highest average finish over the past two years. He is 7th highest on all short tracks over the same period. Last year at the STP 500 he finished 7th from a 16th place start scoring 88.5 fantasy points. He starts in 17th place on Sunday.

(Alex Bowman drives the #88 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!




About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and ESPORTS. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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