DraftKings MMA Mixed Martial Arts DFS Analysis Picks Plays Advice Strategy

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 147 – March 16, 2019

MAKE SURE THE PRICE IS RIGHT


When it comes to constructing lineups, the potential to score has to justify the price. When spending your dollars, investing significant amounts requires big scores. When a fighter is priced reasonably, however, you can afford to take a few chances. This week we’ll look at some fighters who are worth their price and we’ll look at a couple that doesn’t have the scoring potential to justify their salary.

PLAY ‘EM

DOMINICK REYES (DK $9,300) – At the second highest salary of the event, Dominick Reyes will need to put up a big number to justify his price. Over his four UFC fights, he has averaged 103.1 FPPF. In three of those four, he eclipsed the century mark with first-round finishes. In his fourth fight, he scored 87 fantasy points, collecting 94 significant strikes and a knockdown. Volkan Oezdemir is a decent opponent but lacks the skill set to keep up with Reyes. Look for an early finish in this one. Reyes’ high average and floor make him a worthwhile play even at $9,300 in salary.

(At the time of this writing, Dominick Reyes is -243 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 71.7 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

CLAUDIO SILVA (DK $8,600) – Claudio Silva is one of a few fighters on the evening who is favored to win inside the distance. Other than a disqualification in his first professional fight, he has yet to lose. The Brazilian has nine finishes in twelve wins. He will have to contend with the crowd, however, as his opponent Danny Roberts hails from Liverpool. At a salary well under $9k, he is priced to play on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Claudio Silva is -152 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 63.39 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

TOM BREESE (DK $8,400) / IAN HEINISCH (DK $7,800) – These fighters will square off against each other on Saturday. Breese is averaging 85.4 FPPF and Heinisch is averaging 75.5 FPPF. They each are coming into this fight with a single loss on their record. Breese will have the advantage of having the home crowd behind him and along with the higher average, he figures to be the better play. Both fighter’s salaries do give cause to play them both, although not in the same lineups. Both fighters have above average FPPF to salary ratios. I would give this fight a fair amount of play in MME contests with a 60/40 split in favor of Breese.

(At the time of this writing, Tom Breese is -125 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 57.86 on Fantasy Cruncher. Ian Heinisch is +102 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 52.62 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

DON’T PLAY ‘EM

MOLLY MCCANN (DK $8,500) – Molly McCann will be a crowd favorite in London, but she has yet to show that she can dominate UFC talent enough to justify her salary. In her nine fights, she has four KO/TKO’s and has won three of four fights that went to decision. She lost her only UFC fight by submission. Her opponent Saturday is Priscila Cachoeira, who proved she can take a punch when she fought Valentina Shevchenko in February of last year. Though thoroughly dominated, she showed that she has a solid chin when she fought the current flyweight champ. McCann is no Shevchenko and doesn’t figure to finish early in this one, and the betting odds make her a +240 dog to finish inside the distance. At her salary, she gets a pass this week.

(At the time of this writing, Molly McCann is -212 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 68.86 with Fantasy Cruncher.)

JACK MARSHMAN (DK $8,800) – Jack Marshman has shown little ability to score in DFS since joining the UFC. In the UFC his record stands a 2-3 and he averages just 40 FPPF. His opponent, John Phillips, hasn’t fared well either losing both of his fights since entering the octagon. In both fights, Phillips lost by submission. This is his biggest weakness with five of his eight losses coming by way of submission. Marshman has five submissions on his record but at a modest rate of 17%. Given his low average and above average salary, Marshman fails to show much potential score here and at $8,800 your salary dollars can be spent better elsewhere. Both fighters could be used minimally in MME contests, but I wouldn’t give either any cash play.

(At the time of this writing, Jack Marshman is -151 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 60.83 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and NASCAR. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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