Diving deep into player ownership expectations for week 9 NFL DFS contests and sharing potential pivots to help you build separation from the pack in GPP contests.
In this article, I am going to go over some of the more popular or chalky plays as we like to call them in DFS and give you a pivot to consider away from that player in GPPs.
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The top two projected quarterbacks in terms of ownership this week are not a surprise with Cam Newton and Jared Goff leading the way followed closely by Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes. All four of those guys are guys you want exposure to if making multiple lineups and if making a single entry I have no problems eating the chalk with any of these four as there are other ways to make your lineups different. With that being said there is a sub-two percent quarterback that jumps out at me this week and no it is not Nathan Peterman for you Bills fans. The guy who I really like that is under two percent is Deshaun Watson. I know all the reasons why you shouldn’t play Watson this week but I also know he has one of the highest ceilings of any player on this slate and if he goes off at his ownership level you are going to skyrocket to the top of the leaderboards.
The chalky running backs are who you would expect them to be with Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffrey all expected to be over 20% owned. I will have plenty of exposure to both Hunt and McCaffrey as they are my top two running backs on this slate and some exposure to both Gurley and Kamara. With that being said I have no problems fading the last two names on this list especially Gurley. While Gurley is probably going to go off as he does every week I am not sure he scores enough to justify his salary as I talked about earlier in the week. When it comes to Kamara the Mark Ingram factor has to play a role when you can roster both Hunt and McCaffrey for around the same salary. Two names that jump out to me as being in the five percent and under ownership range as of this writing are Phillip Lindsay and Jordan Howard. Both mid-tier players are in great spots to produce this week and I was expecting them to have much higher ownership. The ownership on Adrian Peterson is also lower than I expected for him to be facing the Falcons with Chris Thompson ruled out at right around seven percent.
I am not going to focus on the wide receivers that are going to be chalky this week as I don’t think chalk really matters at the wide receiver position. You can easily play a wide receiver that was projected for 80% ownership not that any are and still make your lineups different by pairing them with lower owned wide receivers. That is something that I personally do is look at each position as a whole instead of each player individually as it is not likely that another lineup is going to have your exact trio of wide receivers unless you just play the three most popular guys. With that in mind, there are a couple of guys that I love that are projected below five percent ownership. Chris Godwin and Danny Amendola stand out the most to me as does David Moore who has been a touchdown machine for the Seahawks over the past couple of weeks.
Tight end is an ugly position this week and I have no problem rostering the chalk at the position. As of now, the chalk is Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen and that is not likely to change. With that being said there is one guy that I have a lot of that I have talked about a lot this week that is projected to be less than one percent owned and that is Chris Herndon. Herndon is a high-risk high reward play and I am liking his reward even more now.
Bears, Dolphins, and Chiefs are the chalk at the position and they are three of the five defenses in my player pool. Based on what my projections it looks like the only two defenses I will actually end up in my lineups this week are the Bears and the Chiefs. This is a position that is best to eat the chalk at if you agree with it and move on.