Walking you through the October 7, 2018 MLB DFS main slate in detail for both FanDuel & DraftKings purposes.
Slate Overview & Weather Notes
Sunday brings us another 2 game slate, with the NL action taking the stage. We have 2 strong SPs taking the mound for their respective teams, and 2 others that should certainly see their share of struggles – or at least face very difficult opponents that will challenge them to perform. Let’s have a closer look.
Like Gerrit Cole last night that we were all over, Walker Buehler should be the standout and most highly-owned commodity on the mound for both FD and DK. His 3.5 opp total is the only one under 4.2 runs on the slate, and his 61% win% is tied for top spot on the slate. He proved he has ice in his veins after throwing nearly 7 full innings of masterful ball against the Rockies 6 days ago, and put together a strong showing against the Braves earlier this year. His stuff is electric and although on the road, he’s a great option today.
Marquez has been a focus point of mine in this column (and the Pitching Rundown) all year long. Or at least in the season’s second half where he’s been absolutely phenomenal. In fact, he closed out the year with 38.1 IP (6 GS) and a sparkling 2.19 SIERA, 13.4 K/9, 19% whiff rate and 37% chase rate in that time. All in all – truly elite and some of the best raw stuff metrics you’ll see in the game. He was great against MIL when they last met in August with 7 innings of 2 run ball with 9 Ks. He’ll see a lower ownership level than Buehler on the slate in all likelihood, but makes for a fantastic high upside option in tournaments.
I do think that you should be rostering one of these guys on FD for sure (my pick would be Marquez thanks to the ceiling and projected ownership advantage) and rolling with both on DK is viable given there should be some plus-split value available for the taking.
Important Numbers to Know
The Rockies and Dodgers sit with 5.3 and 4.5 run totals respectively on this slate. The Rockies are going to jump off the page with that total, and facing Wade Miley is a bit of a gift (on paper) for a 2 game playoff slate.
Miley actually does a nice job limiting LHBs overall (under .300 wOBA in the last few years) but RHB are dominant with a .351 wOBA for the split in that time and a 1.4 HR/9. That brings Nolan Arenado, Matt Holliday, D.J. LeMahieu, and Trevor Story fantastic targets. Ian Desmond has struggled against Miley in his last 15 ABs (.180 wOBA in that time) so he takes a step back in a stack situation for me. I’d rather go with Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl or even Carlos Gonzalez over him based on that history.
For the Dodgers, Chris Taylor likely get a start today with the plus-split against a lefty and a really strong track record from a BvP situation (12 AB, 1 HR, .485 wOBA). Austin Barnes could get a look at C as well (.537 wOBA vs Newcomb in his last 8 PA) and Max Muncy has also taken him deep in 5 PA (despite 3 Ks). Justin Turner, Manny Machado, Yasiel Puig and Enrique Hernandez are plus-split options as Newcomb has struggled against RHBs at times – but it should be noted that LHBs also have a .310+ wOBA against him so are in play (case in point being Muncy above).
I don’t feel that much exposure to Marquez is necessary here – and it wouldn’t shock me if we don’t see much offense from Atlanta either against Buehler. For those reasons, keep your ATL and MIL exposure to a minimum across your entries.
Best of luck out there today!