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The Wyndham Championship – The Primer – PGA DFS Analysis

Featuring in-depth analysis of The Wyndham Championship, 2018. Daily fantasy golf analysis for this week’s DFS slate to help you build winning cash game and tournament lineups on DraftKings.

Welcome to The Primer column for The Wyndham Championship! We’re thrilled to be back with coverage this week, and are here to help you build your DFS lineups for FanDuel, DraftKings or whatever other sites you choose to play on (this article does have a DraftKings bias though).

Course Information

The Wyndham Championship takes place at the Sedgefield Country Club, which is a Par 70 track with only two par 5’s.  There are numerous Par 4’s in the 400-450 yard range, meaning that it is not necessarily a course where you need to have great length in order to compete.  Instead, you will want to ensure that you are looking at accurate players, Par 4 scoring, and players that can gain strokes on their approach shots, specifically in the 100-150 yard range.  You’ll want to focus on players that have a strong chance of making the cut this weekend, as scores will be low this week – making a 6/6 line-up paramount.

As is the case most weeks, I’ll be focused on golfers coming into this week’s event with strong recent form, opting for a preference to play the hot hand, rather than getting bogged down in stats.

The Chalk

This week, the chalk is a little more difficult to pinpoint than it was a week ago.  At the PGA Championship we had extremely soft pricing, and contrary to that – this week, the pricing has tightened up a fair amount, with a few head-scratchers that are outliers (Chris Kirk anyone?):

  • Webb Simpson (Great course history and strong recent form)
  • Henrik Stenson (Great talent in a weak field, defending champ)
  • Joaquin Niemann (Great talent in a weak field event, priced affordably)
  • Edit: Ryan Moore (Strong steady player with strong course history, affordable price)
    • Instead, Harold Varner III – Seeing plenty of buzz around him.  Very strong recent form, good course history.  Elevated price at 50/1 and a $8,900 price-tag, could be an interesting fade
  • Kevin Tway (Stands out when compared with others priced the same)
  • Chris Kirk (mis-priced…in my humble opinion)
  • Keith Mitchell (bomber that the DFS community seems to love, $7,400 is a cheap price for a player of his calibre)
  • Brandon Harkins (has made 20/27 cuts, priced cheap at $6,900, coming off of a T9)

All of the above are in great spots this week, and if you prefer cash games, you can likely build a very strong line-up using only the above list.  For GPP’s, I am not saying you should fade the above list because they are chalk.  Being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian can leave you looking up at the leaderboards week after week.  Instead, I recommend going severely overweight with your multi-entry exposure if you love the spot any of the above players are in.

My top 3 out of the chalk options are: Webb Simpson, Kevin Tway and Chris Kirk after you factor in their price points.

Contrarian Corner

While I may not nail eventual ownership on 100% of the below choices, here are some guys that I think you can get for a fraction of the ownership of ‘The Chalk’ – and it is a list of golfers that are poised for a very strong week for The Wyndham Championship:

  • Shane Lowry

On the surface, a $10k price-tag on Lowry is absurd.  When you dig a little deeper, you have a player that was well regarded in previous PGA seasons, who is rounding into form – and has a strong course history here, highlighted by his 7th place finish at the event a year ago.  He has three straight top 15 finishes, and it would not surprise me one bit to see him continue his strong recent form, and given the weaker field this week, I love the spot he is in.  The elevated price point should help keep his ownership levels in check, making him a very interesting game theory play.

  • Edit: Harold Varner

One of the golfers in the field that saw his salary sky-rocket the most, Varner is an excellent choice this week, despite the bump up.  He has been in the top 20 in each of his last three events, including a T5 at the Greenbrier, and a 6th place finish at the JDC.  When you layer in the fact he finished 10th at the event a year ago, there’s plenty to like about Varner this week, even at the elevated price point.

  • Instead: Ryan Moore

Interesting pivot off of Varner.  Moore has been rock solid of late with three T13 finishes in his last six tournaments.  Seeing more and more buzz on Varner (more than I anticipated), which is enough for me to think Varner will be the chalk.  Moore is a great pivot, and given his price point, I could see him being lower owned than he should be.

  • Steve Stricker

Getting Stricker at $8,300 is a very affordable price-point.  There’s a chance he could be a chalky play this week – but I am hoping that the field ignores this consistent player for some of the more flashy names in the field.  He should be a lock to be playing on the weekend, and it would not surprise me one bit to see him post a top 10 finish at the event.  He’s coming off two disappointing performances (JDC and Canadian Open), where he finished 43rd and 50th – which I am hoping helps drive down his ownership levels.

  • Alex Cejka

He may have a limited ceiling, but has made seven straight cuts, and priced at $6,700 this week – he is a steal.  He isn’t a long hitter, and doesn’t grade out too strong in many of the metrics that many will evaluate this week, but there’s a couple worth noting.  He is ranked 36th on tour as far as accuracy goes, and is great around the green – which should help him grind it out and be relevant on the weekend.  He’s a strong choice if you are looking for salary relief, and a player that can make the cut.  6/6 line-ups will be paramount this week on a course where the scores should be low.

  • Mac Hughes

The Canadian laid an egg at the Barracuda Championship, failing to make the cut for the first time since mid-June.  Hughes is a solid young Canadian golfer, with three top 20 finishes out of his last six events, including one top 10.  He has made 5 cuts over that time frame – and priced at $6,800, he is a great value play for this weekend’s event.  I am hoping that many will see his cut rate of 10/26 for the season – and will just move onto the next one.  I think he has a top 25 finish this week.

About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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