The Bargain Bin: Expert Lineup Value Picks with High ROI Potential to Build a Winning NFL DFS Roster on FanDuel for Week 3 of the 2017-2018 Season.
Welcome to the FC Insights Bargain Bin column for FanDuel. In this post, we highlight a handful of key plays (minimum of one per skill position) that we recommend for the given week of the 2017-2018 NFL DFS season.
We’ll cover the QB, RB, WR, TE and DEF/ST positions from a value perspective to help you build your FanDuel lineup.
The focus of this week’s article covers the week 3 Main slate.
Quarterbacks (under $7,000)
Andy Dalton, CIN, $6,800 @ GB
There are some solid options at QB this week (albeit at higher price points), so I don’t think we are going to see Dalton have much ownership at all. He has really struggled through the first couple games of his 2017 season, which has helped to bring his price down to $6,800 in a match-up with the Packers that should give him an opportunity to get himself going. Despite a 19.5 total point expectancy, the GB defense has ranked 28th in DVOA vs WR1 and 25th in DVOA vs WR2 so far this year. Certainly exploitable numbers, especially when you consider the value that guys like A.J. Green and even Brandon LaFell bring at their prices (Green highlighted in the Starting 5; LaFell below) on a week where Tyler Eifert has already been ruled out. This is a value stack that could yield some nice ROI, even though Vegas doesn’t have the Bengals jumping off the page as a must-play offense.
Running Backs (under $6,000)
I am going to forego talking about Chris Carson today, as he is fairly chalky and a great-looking play against Tennessee on the slate for $6K flat on FanDuel. He appears to be the guy for Seattle and looks like a fantastic option this week (and moving forward). Derrick Henry is also looking like a stud play for the Titans if DeMarco Murray doesn’t suit up, but he is a bit higher than our $6,000 cutoff.
Tevin Coleman, ATL, $5,500 @ DET
Quite simply, this is a game that I want to have exposure to for the week. It has one of the highest totals per Vegas at 51 points, and Coleman’s price allows for cheap access in tournaments. Though I wouldn’t play him in cash games since there are higher floor options in that context, the fact that he should get 8-10 touches and has a propensity for finding the endzone make him an upside play at minimal ownership for tournaments. DET’s defense has great numbers to start the year, but that is only a 2 game measure and the opponents haven’t exactly been the most formidable.
Tarik Cohen, CHI, $5,600 vs PIT
I’m expecting Cohen’s tournament ownership to dip a fair bit this week, as he struggled to get much going on the ground against the Bucs in week 2 (7 rushes for 13 yards) but did wreak havoc on the secondary with another 8 receptions (for the second straight game) for 55 yards. His price makes him a great option to have exposure to in GPPs, especially since he’s been seeing a nice amount of red zone work as well. The Steelers are heavily favored here, but I like the 13-15 touches he seemingly is guaranteed these days thanks to his role in the offense and believe the price makes him a great option to have exposure to.
Samaje Perine, WAS, $5,600 vs OAK
If Rob Kelley is going to miss this game, Perine will see his ownership climb pretty quickly in all formats for this price. He carried the ball 21 times last week, including 5 red zone carries, against the Rams in his “mini breakout” game when his price was only $4,900. Truth be told, that’s excellent volume for a guy that could be staring at 20+ touches yet again. He is clearly the most talented “traditional” rusher on the Redskins (Chris Thompson continues to have a unique role as a pass-catching back), and will get goal line work as well. In a game that is projected to be one of the highest-scoring on the slate, he makes for a RB that you certainly want to have on your short list for week 3.
Wide Receivers (under $6,000)
Rashard Higgins, CLE, $5,100 @ IND
I am expecting to see Higgins pretty decently owned across the board on Sunday – though we aren’t likely talking 15%+. Rather, within the 6-10% area. After bursting onto the scene once Corey Coleman went down for 7 receptions and 95 yards on 11 targets, he is surely to be increasing in popularity across the fantasy football industry. The Colts have been exploited through the air in each of their first couple games, but all WR and TEs when you break down the positional DVOA (18ts in WR1 DVOA, 24th for WR2, 25th for other WRs) – so don’t be surprised if he’s able to easily pay off the salary considering he’s a mere $5,100.
Jamison Crowder, WAS, $5,700 vs OAK
After a couple disappointing games to start his season, week 3 looks like it could be just what the doctor ordered to get Crowder going. His price is down nicely to $5,700 on FD after being over $6,000 through the first couple weeks, and he happens to be playing in one of the best games for exposure as per Vegas (O/U of 55 points right now). OAK ranks in the bottom 10 in DVOA to WR1 and WR2 through 2 games, and I’m expecting Kirk Cousins to rely on him in the slot for 8-10 looks here, making his salary one that I do feel he could pretty easily pay off.
Brandon LaFell, CIN, $4,600 @ GB
I have to admit that I am pretty excited to give LaFell some GPP run on Sunday. Through the first 2 games of the year, he has seen plenty of action for the Bengals, with 12 targets and 3 in the red zone – both rock solid numbers for a guy that is only $4,600 to roster in a game that should feature plenty of scoring. I absolutely love A.J. Green in this one, but LaFell is set to see 6+ targets as the #2 passing option with Tyler Eifert out as well, considering how soft GB has been to WR1 and WR2 per DVOA so far this year. You can’t go wrong with GPP exposure here, and I also don’t hate the play in cash games for a WR3 slot.
Kenny Stills, MIA, $5,100 @ NYJ
With 5 targets in his first game of the year and a great match-up on Sunday against the Jets, Stills is awfully intriguing as a GPP play on the slate. The Jets have been a sieve of a defense to opposing WR to start the year, ranking in the bottom 3 against opposing WRs in DVOA. Stills tends to be a nice big play threat in DFS, and has actually brought double-digit FD points to the table in each of his last 6 games (including 2016-17). There is a lot to like here in a great match-up, especially if DaVante Parker happens to sit out.
Cheap punts that I don’t mind as last roster spot options in GPPs:
Tight Ends (under $6,000)
Martellus Bennett, GB, $5,600 vs CIN
I like Bennett even more this week if Jordy Nelson and/or Randall Cobb happens to miss Sunday’s game vs the Bengals. He is tied for #2 in TE targets through 2 weeks with Travis Kelce – just 1 behind Zach Ertz for most in the NFL (18 total targets). That said, he hasn’t been getting the red zone looks so far (0 to date), but I do believe that will come in time. He’s a very nice value option in a game that I quite like for GPP exposure.
Kyle Rudolph, MIN, $5,400 vs TB
With Sam Bradford out, the outlook for the Minnesota offense takes a bit of a hit on the whole. However, Rudolph continued to get looks as the safety valve and go-to guy in the red zone – so I do think there is upside this week. He doesn’t have a massive ceiling and shouldn’t be highly owned, but he’s a decent play for the price.
Eric Ebron, DET, $5,200 vs ATL
He hasn’t been a target hog by any means, but he does a good job hauling in his opportunities and has a solid match-up against Atlanta that could lead to 5-7 targets at a great price. This is a game that I certainly want exposure to, and going with Ebron is an under the radar route to gain access to a team with a 23+ point total.
Hunter Henry, LAC, $5,500 vs KC
After an absent week one, Henry reeled in all 7 of his week 2 targets for 80 yards against Miami. The Chiefs are his week 3 opponent, and they have been very good against TE so far in 2017 – so I am not chomping at the bit to get him in the lineup. That said, with a solid role in the offense, he has to be on your short list for GPP exposure if you want a low own play thanks to the volume we saw last game, so feel free to make him part of your tournament rotation at the position if you’d like. He probably ranks lowest on this list for week 3, though.
Defense/Special Teams (under $4,500)
Colts, $4,500 vs CLE
I am intrigued to play the Colts against the Browns this week, as the rookie QB factor can always lead to some nice turnover production fo the opposition, and they looked pretty darn good in week 2 against the Cardinals holding them to 16 points and generating 2 TOs with 4 sacks as well. Over the last couple years, their defense has done well against mediocre offenses with 7-11 FDP as the output in those outings, and since they will be low-0wned in a week where the opposition should have a low point total as well, there is a path to a nice ROI.
Eagles, $4,500 vs NYG
The Eagles are certainly set to be one of the more popular options at DEF/ST this week thanks to a really nice price point and tendency to put together big FDP numbers at times – not to mention back-to-back 4 sack weeks and 4 TOs in week 1. They picked off Eli Manning for 3 INTs the last time they met, and it won’t surprise me to see them show up well in week 3 at home against their division rivals. They’re one of the best high takeaway percentage teams in the league, and for the price, make for a great play.