The Bargain Bin: Expert Lineup Value Picks with High ROI Potential to Build a Winning NFL DFS Roster on DraftKings for Week 3 of the 2017-2018 Season.
Welcome to the FC Insights Bargain Bin column for DraftKings. In this post, we highlight a handful of key plays (minimum of one per skill position) that we recommend for the given week of the 2017-2018 NFL DFS season.
We’ll cover the QB, RB, WR, TE and DEF/ST positions from a value perspective to help you build your DraftKings lineup.
The focus of this week’s article covers the week 3 Main slate.
Quarterbacks (under $5,000 – the true bargains)
I’m not terribly excited about the options under the price threshold, but Tyrod Taylor could be an interesting play for $4.900 at home against Denver. His ownership will be minimal and Denver ranks 16th in DVOA vs the pass so far through 2 games. Nothing special to write home about here, but the value is there if you want to punt the position. On the whole, I feel better about higher-priced plays on the slate, though.
Running Backs (under $5,000)
There are quite a few RBs under the $5K mark on DK this week, and I do believe that playing at least one of them is a nice path to profit on the slate.
Chris Carson, SEA, $4,900 @ TEN
He has one of the highest floors of this group, having just come off a 20 carry game against the 49ers with a couple targets through the air as well, finishing with 11 DKP. It’s pretty evident to me that he’s the guy to own now in the Seattle backfield, and while he is as cheap as this, you can’t go wrong with DFS exposure.
Isaiah Crowell, CLE, $4,800 @ IND
Despite being intrigued by the IND DEF/ST for the right price, you can’t ignore what Crowell brings to the table under $5K here either. He’s the key guy to own in the backfield for the Browns, and although he hasn’t been getting 20 touches as we typically like to see from high-end plays, he is almost a shoe-in for 12-15 in a match-up that shouldn’t see him have a ton of ownership having come off a 3.7 DKP game. That makes him intriguing for GPPs.
Jonathan Stewart, CAR, $4,700 vs NO
While most folks are going with Christian McCaffrey, I think that J-Stew continues to be a sneaky value option in DFS. He has 15+ touches through each of his first two games, and faces the NO defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA as a unit so far this year. Plenty of points should be scored in this one, and he’s likely to get the goal line work as well.
Samaje Perine, WAS, $4,500 vs OAK
I don’t love low-volume pass-catchers on DK for the most part, but if we are looking at 20+ touches for Perine against the Raiders here, I have no problem with playing him at this price. He had over 20 touches last week while Rob Kelley stunk up the joint yet again, and should be able to put together a similar outing once again in a game that Vegas believes will see plenty of scoring. He’s a high floor option for the price.
Wide Receivers (under $5,000)
Rishard Matthews, TEN, $4,200 vs SEA
It’s always playing with fire if you have heavy exposure to the Titans offense outside of Marcus Mariota, but it’s pretty clear that he and Matthews have a nice chemistry – particularly in the red zone where he sees at least a target most games (5 straight with 1+ red zone looks). Matthews should be a formidable GPP play for the price, especially with Corey Davis sitting this game out
Mohamed Sanu, ATL, $4,500 @ DET
Sanu has quietly accumulated 15 targets through his first 2 games – tied for 13th in the league with Terrell Pryor for that number. While he isn’t always going to see a lot of red zone work, I do expect that the game with Detroit is going to feature plenty of action through the air, where Sanu could easily reel in 5-7 balls for 60+ yards. For the price in a PPR scoring format, you can’t go wrong.
Kendall Wright, CH, $4,300 vs PIT
It’s pretty safe to assume that Wright is going to be a popular volume play on DK thanks to a 10 target week 2 – tied for 5th on the slate for that mark (and right in line with Higgins’ 11 as another value play that we really like this week as well). Chicago is going to need to do some damage in the air, and PIT has allowed decent production this year to WR2 (20th in DVOA).
Cheap punts that I don’t mind as last roster spot options in GPPs:
Tight Ends (under $4,000)
My guys under $4K on DK this week are Jared Cook ($3,100), Zach Miller ($3,000), and Jack Doyle ($3,600). Martellus Bennett was covered pretty well in the FanDuel column, and he is just on the cusp at $4,000 but could be staring at a great week as well.
Cook has 11 targets through his first 2 weeks of the year, with 5 in week 1 and 6 last week. With the Redskins set for their week 3 battle, and Vegas loving this game for one of the highest scoring in the league for the slate, I can’t argue with him at near site minimum, either. He has plenty of upside at this price.
Doyle had 8 targets last week, and although I am going to like him a lot more when Andrew Luck is back, that 8 targets is certainly encouraging nonetheless. CLE ranks 23rd in DVOA vs TEs so far this year, and is one of the softest groups through the air on the whole (getting roasted by WR1 and RBs as well) – so it’s not crazy to think that Doyle could bring in 5-6 targets for 60+ yards here (with a potential score, too).
Miller is probably going to have the lowest ownership of the group, but also happens to be sitting near the top of the heap in terms of red zone targets (4 YTD) and total targets (15 YTD) – 2 very key indicators to exploit in DFS. Now, the catch rate of 67% isn’t anything to get super excited about – but when don’t have much talent throwing you the ball, it’s hard to blame him. For $3,000 this week against the Steelers, it’s possible that he’ll find a way to 5+ receptions and perhaps a score. You can certainly take that to the bank in tournaments thanks to the nice leading indicators with respect to his role in the offense.
Defense/Special Teams (under $3,000)
Panthers, $2,600 vs NO
This may seem like a crazy play, and I can’t exactly say with full confidence that it isn’t, but there are a couple factors that lead me to believe they could be a neat GPP group to have exposure to:
- The sacks – with 3 or 4 sacks in each of their last 4 games dating back to last year, they are doing a great job putting pressure on the opposition to accrue a nice baseline level of fantasy production.
- Points scored – they have only allowed 6 total points through their first 2 weeks (albeit against Buffalo and San Francisco) – but were alsto able to keep New Orleans to just 20 when they met last year. In fact, they have kept the opposition to under 17 in 5 of their last 6 overall.
- History – like I mentioned above, they kept Drew Brees and company to 20 points last time they met – with 3 sacks and 2 TOs as well (also a home game for Carolina).
I love the price point and group talent for Carolina here, feeling as though there is a solid path to profit here in tournaments thanks to a low ownership rate that could certainly separate you from your peers in a larger field context where Tampa Bay, Philly, Miami and Pittsburgh are likely to all see high ownership. They aren’t a must start by any means, but it won’t shock me to see them out-earn some of the higher-own groups.