DraftKings and FanDuel PGA DFS Lineup Targets & Picks – 2017 John Deere Classic
We managed to hit the nail on the head last week, writing up about Xander Schauffele, who was able to pull off his first PGA victory at the Greenbrier Classic. This week, we have another low-end field event, the John Deere Classic, before heading overseas for The Open.
The course is set to be played at 7,258 yards, and a Par 72 this week – which means that we are looking for players that can go low on this relatively short course, given the fact it is a Par 72. I’ll continue to be riding with the hot hands, relying on recent form – as well as the ability to score.
The picks will be focused on some of my top plays for each price level, quickly noting their DraftKings and FanDuel prices – and rationale for why I like the play.
Steve Stricker ($9,800 DK; $9,300 FD)
Stricker has the ability to win this tournament, especially given the field he will be going up against this week. He has only finished outside the top 11 twice out of the last eight times he has teed it up at the John Deere, and I like his chances of competing again this week. He won the tournament 3 consecutive years from 2009-2011, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him do it again this week. I feel he has a good shot at being lower owned than some others in his price range (Danny Lee, Charley Hoffman).
Robert Streb ($8,700 DK; $6,900 FD)
On first glance, Streb may be over-priced on DraftKings, but given the relatively soft pricing these days, that isn’t the worst thing in the world as it should keep his ownership levels down. He was great at the Greenbrier, shooting 4 straight rounds in the 60’s – and he’s been known to be a streaky golfer at times, which means he could be poised to go on a run, much like we saw from him last year. I’ll be significantly over-weight with Streb shares this week.
Chad Campbell ($7,600 DK; $6,600 FD)
With two top 10 finishes out of the last three tournaments, Campbell enters the John Deere in excellent form. He won’t break the bank at his price point, and while I don’t think he has a great shot at winning the tournament, I like his chances of being relevant when the weekend rolls around. In both the tournaments he finished in the top 10 he had 3 rounds in the 60’s, and he has a good shot at going low this weekend.
Curtis Luck ($7,100 DK; $6,000 FD)
Luck finished T5 at the Quicken Loans National, only to follow it up with a T20 at the Greenbrier last week – and I think he keeps playing great golf this weekend. He’s affordable at his price point on each site, and although he may see higher ownership levels than I would like, I get the sense that he should be higher owned than he will end up being, based on what I have been seeing in the DFS golf world this week. I’ll be heavily invested in the young Aussie this week.
Ryan Brehm ($6,500 DK; $5,200 FD)
Brehm has made 11/14 cuts this year – and also ranks in the top 5 for birdies made over the past 5 weeks. When you factor in the fact that he is min-priced on DK, there is a lot to like here. I’ve been seeing a lot of noise that there isn’t much to like under $7k this week – but I love Brehm at this price, largely due to his ability to score – and stick around for weekends. I think he does both this week, and that he pays off his price-tag on each site.
Below are good plays, but ones that I expect to be fairly popular. Unlike any chalk picks mentioned above, I will not be going over-weight with exposure here – but will have exposure to the names listed below. There is risk to going with zero shares of any of those listed, but if you fade and they don’t make it to the weekend, you could be in great shape:
- Brian Harman
- Danny Lee
- Charley Hoffman
- Kevin Na
High Risk/High Reward
- Chez Reavie – He has the ability to score – the only downside here is his price. Paying $8,400 makes me cringe when it comes to Reavie, a player usually priced much lower, even in weak field events. He has been playing well though, and I am sure I will be over-weight exposure to him this week.
- Bryson DeChambeau – He has only made 7/19 cuts on the year, but has three straight top 26 finishes, including two finishes in the top 20. He has scored at least 17 birdies in each of the past three weeks – and has the ability to pile up points when he is firing on all cylinders. There’s risk here with this pick, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him low owned, and in contention when Sunday rolls around.
Good luck this week!