DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Targets & Picks – 2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational
The PGA Tour makes a stop at Bay Hill Club this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational – and FanDuel has rolled out their new (albeit) bizarre scoring format for PGA contests . Bay Hill is a Par 72, 7,400+ yard course that draws some of the best in the game to play in what is a great field for a non-major tournament. Length will be a key metric to look at when choosing your players, and with more than 100 bunkers on the course layout – accuracy and sand play will also be paramount for success.
The picks will be focused on some of my top plays for each price level, quickly noting their DraftKings price – and rationale for why I like the play. I need some time to process strategy for FD’s bizarre scoring system and two round per golfer you choose format, so I am only focusing on DK for the time being with my thoughts below:
Henrik Stenson (11,500)
Stenson is the best play on the board this week IMO. He has finished in the top 8 in each of his last 4 starts at Bay Hill – and has been playing outstanding golf, with six straight top 10 finishes dating back to late October in 2016. I expect him to be right in the thick of things again at the Arnold heading into Sunday, and perhaps to pull off the win. The only drawback here is that I do expect him to be the highest owned golfer of the week.
Jason Day ($10,600)
While you can’t really go wrong with any of the elite options this week – I like Jason Day as a potential Game Theory play this week. He really hasn’t hit his stride yet – but I have no problem using Day as a compliment to Stenson (or a pivot off of him at lower ownership). We saw a glimpse of him rounding into form at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, though last week’s 64th place finish at the Genesis left a lot to be desired. All in all, he will get things going soon – and if you can time the week that he breaks out and rounds back into form, you have a shot at getting an elite golfer at lower ownership than he should have. I would not look his way in cash games – GPP only play.
Paul Casey ($8,800)
Ever since scorning the chalk at the Sony Open in January, Casey has been remarkably consistent – and I expect four quality rounds from him this weekend. He has shown good form recently at the Arnold, finishing in a T9 a year ago. Add in the fact that he is one of the top golfers in the world – and he is one of the best plays on the board this weekend for all formats. Just don’t think you’ll get him at low ownership, I do expect him to be popular.
Martin Kaymer ($7,400)
Kaymer is criminally under-priced. He has an elite skill-set, and I like his fit for this course very much. At this price, I do expect him to be one of the highest owned players in the entire field, but I will likely be over weight exposure here. He is a cut making machine, and has two top five finishes in his past five tournaments – so the upside is there for this price point.
Francesco Molinari ($8,600)
Molinari has finished in the top 20 in 8 of his last 9 touranments (including Euro events) dating back to September of last year. He is a little pricier than many will want to pay for him – but that will keep him from being extremely chalky at this event. He plays tough courses very well – and while I don’t like his chances of winning the event, he could very well crack the top 10 when everything is all said and done on Sunday evening. He isn’t an extremely long hitter – so that may help keep his ownership level down a little further this week.
Wesley Bryan ($7,100)
I expect Bryan to be a chalky play this week. He has made the cut in four straight events, including 3 straight finishes in the top 7. Players who favour recent form will be all over him this week – and I can’t argue with the logic here. He is putting the ball extremely well right now, and until further notice – he is a great value play at his price-point.
Tommy Fleetwood ($7,200)
Fleetwood has been playing outstanding golf of late. He has the potential to win a touranment with a quality field, like we saw at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Tournament earlier this season – and checks in at a very affordable price-tag. Don’t expect rock bottom ownership levels on him, I do expect him to have ownership figures in the double digits this week due to the fact that he has 5 top 12 finishes in his past 7 tournaments.
Russell Henley ($7,000)
Henley has been in great form of late – and even though his game doesn’t specifically suit Bay Hill – I do like him as a low owned option at his price point with many ‘better fits’ having similar price-tags. I think he slips under the radar, and while I don’t think he has much of a shot at taking home the title in this one, I like his chances of making the cut and providing value at his salary.