DraftKings PGA DFS GPP Lineup Targets & Picks – 2016 BMW Championship
This should be a really fun week for tournaments. With no cut and only 69 players in the field (Henrik Stenson withdrew), there are going to be wild swings from day to day, as everyone will have 6 golfers play 4 rounds (unless someone withdraws). This is also a time I will mention that leaving salary on the table may be a smart move, as it should differentiate you in tournaments. Onto the picks.
Top Priced Tier
Dustin Johnson (11,300)
So, we have a 7500 yard course with 4 par 5s? DJ has to be a top choice for this. Johnson is #1 in Driving Distance, #10 in Par 5 Scoring, #1 in Par 4 Scoring, #2 in Birdie Average, and #3 in both Total Strokes Gained (SG) and SG Tee-to-Green. He’s always a great choice, but especially on long courses with 4 par 5s.
He’s coming off an 8th last week in Boston, and is sitting 3rd in the FedEx Cup standings. He needs a solid week to be able to control his destiny going into the Tour Championship in 2 weeks. Everyone is going to be on Rory this week, due to his win last week, and win at Crooked Stick in 2012. DJ is a great pivot off of Rory and has the game to win.
Mid Priced Tier
Hideki Matsuyama (9,100)
With a stars and scrubs lineup looking to be the popular method of choice this week, I think the low 9k range and 8k range will be very low owned. Matsuyama hasn’t had consistent form as of late, but has some finishes and stats that should fit well. His playoffs haven’t been great: 15th in Boston, and a missed cut at Bethpage. Prior to that, he had 2 straight top 5 finishes. Hideki has made 14 of 20 cuts, but 7 of those resulted in a Top 10 finish.
Matsuyama is 4th in Birdie Average, 5th in SG Tee-to-Green, and 8th in Total Strokes Gained. I never know what to expect from him week to week, but he clearly has the game to contend and has already won this year in Phoenix, back in February. Too risky for cash, Matsuyama makes for a perfect GPP play.
Ryan Moore (8,700)
If you like players that are playing well in the PGA Playoffs, you need to take a look at Ryan Moore. After winning the John Deere, Moore struggled at the Wyndham, but has put together back to back Top 10 finishes in the Playoffs. He finds himself 12th in FedEx Cup Points, and almost a lock to make it to Atlanta.
Moore is not a long driver of the ball, but makes up for it by being 14th in Driving Accuracy, 20th in Total Strokes Gained, 40th in SG Tee-to-Green, and 48th in Birdie Average. He’s playing too well right now to ignore him. I’ll take a hot golfer at below 9k, and hope he continues his recent form, especially if I think he may be under 10% ownership, thanks to him being in this potentially ignored 8k range, and people paying 100 less for Bubba Watson.
Kevin Chappell (7,700)
Chappell has gotten off to fast starts the past 2 weeks in the Playoffs. In New York, he slipped down to a 31st place finish. In Boston, he held on for an 8th place finish. Sitting in 13th place in the FedEx Cup Standings, he’s a virtual lock to make the Tour Championship, and probably needs a win to get to Atlanta and get into a win and win the FedEx Cup scenario.
Chappell is 3rd in Eagles this season, along with being 11th in SG Tee-to-Green, and 27th in Total Strokes Gained. He has 7 Top 10 finishes on the year, and has been one of the surprises at the top of the FedEx Cup standings. With no cut and some good form early in rounds, Chappell makes for an intriguing play, because if he figures out how to carry over this play early, into the weekend, he will get his first tour win very soon.
Low Priced Tier
Jamie Lovemark (6,900)
Consistency is not a part of Lovemark’s game this season. He is 18 of 26 in making cuts, but doesn’t have to worry about the cut this week. However, in 9 of those 18 made cuts, he’s finished in the Top 25. Another Top 25 at under 7k this week would be exceeding value.
I like players this week who can hit the ball far (7500 yard course) and who can make birdies (no cut, so need high scorers to cash in GPP), and Lovemark fits the bill for both. He is 11th in Driving Distance and 32nd in Birdie Average. He may cause you to sweat a little bit all week, but has the ability to pull a nice finish, if his game is on.
Roberto Castro (6,300)
Castro is about the cheapest I would go this week, and 6300 for a golfer that has made 12 of his past 13 cuts shows enough consistency that I can take the risk at such a low price. Castro’s best stats are that he’s 30th in SG Tee-to-Green and 14th in Greens in Regulation. He only has 3 top 10s all year, so he’s not going to give you a lot of upside. But, with 2 top 20s in 2 of his past 3 events, he provides enough value that in tournaments, can allow you to spend up for a couple of golfers in the 9k and above range.
Castro is more of a punt play this week, as he has a few 60th place finishes, mixed in with top 25s. If he does the latter, he will provide great value at such a low price.