DraftKings PGA DFS Cash Game Lineup Targets & Picks – 2016 BMW Championship
Only 2 events remain on the PGA Tour Season, and the third round of the playoffs goes to Crooked Stick GC outside of Indianapolis. It is a 7500 yard, par 72 where there are no cuts. The only course history would be 2012, when the BMW was played here. Only the top 70 in the FedEx Cup made it to Indianapolis (69 will play, Henrik Stenson has withdrawn) and with a no cut event, expect a stars and scrubs lineup construction to be popular. Since that looks like it may be the way to go, I’ll mention 3 stars, 1 mid-priced option, and 2 options around the 7k range. Enjoy a week of not having to worry about a missed cut, and enjoy the four rounds your golfers will give you.
Top Priced Tier
Rory McIlroy (11,900)
I was following the leaderboard on Friday, and though McIlroy may be done after he started 3 over. Oops. He won the event, avoiding the disaster on Monday to shoot 65 and get his 2nd win worldwide this year. He just also happens to be the defending champion at Crooked Stick, as he won 4 years ago shooting 20 under. Rory’s putter showed up at Boston, and if he putts as well as he did then, he will be tough to beat.
Rory fits a lot of the categories I’m looking for: #1 in Strokes Gained (SG) off the tee, #1 in Birdie Average, #2 in SG Tee-to-Green, 4th in Total Strokes Gained, 4th in Total Driving, and 10th in Driving Distance. He should be the chalk play this week, but in cash games, that’s perfectly fine. You can build a solid lineup around Rory.
Adam Scott (10,200)
If you aren’t paying up for McIlroy, then I think Scott is the pivot in cash games. He has finished 4th in both playoff events so far. Hard to beat that consistency. He has 7 top 10s in 17 worldwide starts and 2 wins on the season. He’s also the “bubble boy” for the Top 5 in FedEx Cup points. The Top 5 going into the Tour Championship control their destiny to win the cup, with a win in Atlanta.
Scott fits the stats too for this course: 1st in SG Tee-to-Green, 2nd in Total Strokes Gained, 10th in Greens in Regulation, 13th in Birdie Average, and 14th in Driving Distance. I think he’s the second best play in the 10k and above range and will take this discount over Day, Johnson, and Spieth.
Mid Priced Tier
Patrick Reed (9,700)
If Scott hasn’t been the best player in the Playoffs, then it has to be Reed. He won the Barclays, and followed that up with a 5th in Boston last week. Reed has 8 straight top 25 finishes, which is almost unheard of on the PGA Tour. Yet, he’s sitting below 10k, making him an absolute steal at this price.
Reed is 13th in Total Strokes Gained, 22nd in SG Tee-to-Green, 32nd in Birdie Average, and has an average drive just under 300 yards. I love the idea of pairing Scott and Reed in cash games (Rory with Reed is fine too if you are comfortable with the value plays), and think Reed is a near must play with his current form.
Bubba Watson (8,600)
Bubba finds himself a little too close to not making it to Atlanta, as he’s 27th right now in FedEx Cup Standings, after missing his first cut of the year last week in Boston. However, if we are looking for a bomber on a long course, Bubba should always be in play. He has a win and 5 top 10 finishes on tour this year, so I’m not overly worried about one missed cut.
Bubba is 5th in Par 5 Scoring (4 Par 5s this week), along with being 4th in Driving Distance, 6th in Eagles, 6th in SG Tee-to-Green, and 15th in Total Strokes Gained. The price seems a bit low for someone we are used to paying 10k+ for, meaning Bubba should be a very popular play and one who can easily return massive value for a golfer in this mid-8k range.
Low Priced Tier
Hudson Swafford (7,100)
Time to find some cheap options if you’re going to pay up for some of the golfers I listed above, and Swafford fits the category. He’s made 11 straight cuts, and is coming off a 15th in Boston, one of his better finishes on the year. He probably needs a top 3 finish to make it to Atlanta, so he could have a little extra motivation due to that.
I think he’s a nice fit for this course: 8th in Driving Distance, 27th in Birdie Average, and has positive strokes gained in all of those categories. Do I think he gets a top 10? Probably not. But, I think a top 25 or top 30 is very possible and at this price, he would hit value, especially if he can rack up some birdies, and maybe an eagle or two.
Charles Howell III (6,900)
Remember back in the spring where Howell was making cuts consistently and racking up top 25 prices at this price range? Well, it’s time to go back to the well. After missing the cut at the Barclays, “Chill” finished 24th last week in Boston and still is having a great season, with 5 top 10s in 20 made cuts.
Howell is another golfer that fits some of my categories this week: 16th in Driving Distance, 25th in Birdie Average, 29th in Total Strokes Gained, and 45th in SG Tee-to-Green. I think Howell provides some consistency at this price and should be a pretty safe cash game play on the week.