DraftKings PGA DFS GPP Lineup Targets & Picks – The Barclays
It’s Playoff time on the PGA Tour with the Barclays being the first of the 4 Playoff events. DraftKings has really softened up the pricing this week so there should be many lineup variations. The stars and scrubs method seems to be the popular method this week, which means a balanced lineup could be used to success in tournaments this week.
The Barclays returns to Bethpage Black on Long Island. It is a 7400 yard Par 71 course. We won’t see anything close to the birdie fest that we have seen the past 2 weeks on tour. I’m putting some emphasis on driving distance and greens in regulation, along with the strokes gained stats. Here are some of the tournament picks I am looking at this week.
Cream of the Crop
Rory McIlroy (11,600)
McIlroy being the 4th highest priced golfer in a full field isn’t anything new. But, being behind Henrik Stenson and 600 higher than Spieth probably means he will be the lowest owned of the top 5. When we last saw him at the PGA Championship, he missed the cut despite leading the field the first 2 days in strokes gained tee-to-green. It was hit putter that severely let him down.
The season stats show similar things: 1st in Strokes Gained off the Tee, 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 5th in Total Strokes Gained, 10th in Driving Distance, and only 96th in Strokes Gained Putting. Rory has played here twice, finishing 10th at the 2009 U.S. Open and 24th at the 2012 Barclays. If McIlroy has fixed his putting, he could be winning this tournament come Sunday, and at a low ownership, would give you a massive advantage on the field.
Phil Mickelson (9,700)
I never know what to expect from Phil on a weekly basis, but after struggling a bit earlier in the season, he’s made 4 cuts in a row, including a 33rd at the PGA Championship after coming off that historic runner-up performance at the British Open. He has also played Bethpage Black twice, finishing tied for 2nd at the 2009 U.S. Open and 38th in 2012.
Phil is 4th in Total Strokes Gained, which includes being 3rd in Putting and 14th in Tee-to-Green. He is still driving the ball over 290 yards on average, which is still long enough for this demanding course. I like players who have had some success at this long course in the past, and the way he has played in the past month, I think Phil makes for a nice play this week.
Bubba Watson (9,100)
A Tour event that is going to require driving distance? You have to consider Bubba Watson as he can absolutely crush a golf ball. Bubba hasn’t missed a cut this year and has 5 Top 10s and a win this season. He has played Bethpage Black twice, with both finishes being in the Top 20.
Bubba is 4th in Driving Distance, 3rd in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 8th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 14th in Total Strokes Gained, and 20th in Greens in Regulation. There is a lot to like about Bubba this week and should be a good play at this lower price.
Patrick Rodgers (7,400)
If you are looking for someone who should be under 5% owned, I think Rodgers is your guy. Besides the 7k range potentially being lower owned than usual, he’s priced around the same range as Kevin Na, Russell Knox, Bill Haas, and Steve Stricker. Rodgers has made 3 cuts in a row, which includes a 3rd at the Travelers.
Rodgers is 11th in Greens in Regulation and 23rd in Driving Distance. That’s a nice combination for to play well at Bethpage Black. He is 15/25 in making cuts this year, so he’s certainly bringing some risk. But, he’s been playing well as of late and has a game that should fit the course.
Kevin Kisner (6,400)
Kisner is the 30th ranked golfer in the world, and is 11th in FedEx Cup points. Yet, he finds himself in the bargain range for pricing this week. Kisner has made 6 cuts in a row, including back to back top 20 finishes and does have 6 top 10 finishes on the year.
Kisner is average at driving distance and slightly below average in greens in regulation. However, he is 9th in Strokes Gained Putting and 30th in Total Strokes Gained. For someone with top 10 upside at this price, I think he’s tough to ignore if you can overlook his lack of driving distance and GIR %.
Ricky Barnes (5,800)
You may have noticed with my 3 picks that I’m including players who have had success at Bethpage Black in both recent tour stops here. Barnes was the runner-up in the 2009 U.S. Open and 24th at the 2012 Barclays. On tour, he has made 4 straight cuts, which includes 2 top 5 finishes.
Barnes isn’t overwhelming in the stats: slightly below average in driving distance, 63rd in Greens in Regulation, and top 60 in the Strokes Gained categories (not counting SG off the Tee). I like his recent form and past success at this course, and those are the reasons I have no problem taking a chance on Barnes at a price under 6000.