FanDuel & DraftKings Week 2 NFL DFS Picks and Plays for GPP Tournament Contests.
FanDuel & DraftKings GPP Lineup Picks, Strategy & Advice for Week 2 NFL DFS Contests (9/17 – 9/21).
Co-Written by: Marcel Ritchey & Matt Kupferle (@mkupferle)
Welcome to our GPP post! We here at Moxyball want to do our best to give you advice that could get you to the top of the rankings in those BIG tourneys every week.
We will be discussing different strategies and methods of attacking throughout the season to keep things fresh and exciting and possibly winning the big one we are all striving for. We will be following the lead that Vegas odds set out, as the house wins more than it loses.
So while playing GPPs, we should expect more losses than playing 50/50s and double ups, but will have better payouts when we do hit it big.
Our suggestion is to keep the GPP play to a minimal transaction limit to ensure minimal losses to the bankroll. In other words, don’t go crazy and refer to playing it safe in cash games with the majority of your investments.
Each week Matt and I will share our choices not only for bragging rights, but to give our readers perspectives from multiple angles.
Let’s get right into it.
Key Vegas Insights
- The biggest favorites for the week is the New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay.
- The lowest money line is Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers.
- My take on these numbers are that for scoring purposes New Orleans has the best odds and I want to make my selections from this matchup, especially being that both teams don’t have much of a defense. Other teams I like are Baltimore, Indianapolis and St. Louis.
|QB||Nick Foles, St. Louis||Carson Palmer, Arizona|
|QB||Ryan Fitzpatrick, New York||Marcus Mariota, Tennessee|
|WR||Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis||Odell Beckham Jr, New York Giants|
|WR||Terrance Williams, Dallas||Cole Beasley, Dallas|
|RB||Marshawn Lynch, Seattle||Mark Ingram, New Orleans|
|RB||Adrian Peterson, Minnesota||Carlos Hyde, San Francisco|
|TE||Martellus Bennett, Chicago||Greg Olsen, Carolina|
|TE||Jordan Reed, Washington||Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati|
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Strategy – My strategy this week is going to be the same as it is throughout most of the season, I am finding the absolute best value play at the QB position so I can afford to play the better options at the WR and RB spots as they get 6 points for the TD where as QB’s only get 4 points. My goal is for the bulk of positions being WR & RB to get the most points in my lineup, and that’s where I want to make the best value for my money. Let me explain below.
QB – Nick Foles just went out and beat the Seattle Seahawks one of the leagues arguably best defenses and threw for 297 yards and a TD. My favorite QB Aaron Rodgers couldn’t even throw for that amount of yards on his first game against Seattle last year. I also think Foles is a much better QB than Ryan Tannehill is and destroys Washington in this bout. Playing Foles may just win you the Sunday Million! I like him that much this week.
QB – Ryan Fitzpatrick holy cow blew up the Browns winning 31 to 10 with two touchdowns to Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. This week he is facing the Colts and if you can see what the rookie from Buffalo did I can’t wait to see this contrarian play. Fitzy has two great receivers a great running back in Chris Ivory and the Jets D I think also keeps this game from being a blowout which keeps the confidence level on a high throughout this game.
WR Note: My WR choices are all targeted by top 10 QB’s.
WR – Donte Moncrief is looking like my sneaky play this week. As I mentioned above about how good the Jets D is I’m not sure if they can totally contain an upset Andrew Luck. While one of the two good defensive backs are out they still have Darel Revis, and since T.Y. seems to maybe be out Andre Johnson should be stuck on Revis Island. All this leads to the second year WR to step up and make some plays, especially since the run game is next to nothing, someone get Frank Gore a walker.
WR – Terrance Williams is going to be the next Dez Bryant just maybe not with as much flare. While out with a broken foot, Terrance caught 5 passes on 9 targets but one was called back as interference. He noticed a considerable uptick in the final two drives. He has a great QB in Tony Romo and the great QB’s find ways to get it done, and as always someone always has to step up, and that’s what I think Terrance will do week 2.
RB – Marshawn Lynch is going to go full beast mode in Green Bay just as Matt Forte did but Marshawn is younger and a better rusher. Green Bay will be worried about Jimmy Graham and Russell’s legs so Marshawn will continue to gouge the Packers until they bleed. I don’t mind paying up for him as you want a little security in your big tourney.
RB – Adrian Peterson is facing the Detroit Lions and if you noticed how San Diego gashed Detroit with Danny Woodhead and Melvin Gordon can you imagine what AP can do? Teddy will have a game under his belt and have great WR’s around him to keep the D honest, not to mention the D had their best guy go to Miami.
TE – Martellus Bennett is facing the Cardinals and caught all SEVEN of his targets, and I think he ends up seeing even more looks if the Cards can contain Matt Forte and the horrid Jay Cutler. Martellus looks to be the new Julius Thomas with new head coach John Fox.
TE – Jordan Reed is Kirk Cousins new best friend (Sorry RGIII). The Rams that they are facing may keep the long game in check as they did with the Seahawks. Not to mention the team high 11 targets could be a norm going forward as long as DeSean Jackson is out with a hammy injury.
QB: Carson Palmer. Palmer is so cheap at $7,800 that even if he weren’t facing the Bears, I’d be looking at him strongly, and this price point for me is an absolute no brainer. The Bears ranked 30th in total defense in 2014, and in Week One, they didn’t show much that made me think I needed to change my mind. They also ranked 30th in Passing Yards allowed. Play Palmer and load up elsewhere.
QB: Marcus Mariota. The only problem that I have with playing Mariota is that there may be a lot of people playing him due to recency bias. That’s ok. He’ll face a Browns defense that got shredded by the Jets last week. While the way to beat the Browns in 2014 was on the ground, I still think there’s a ton of opportunity here for Mariota to put up big numbers. At $7,400, there’s a lot of upside ROI to that price point.
RB: Mark Ingram. Of the backs this week, Ingram is my pick of the “elite”. It just helps that of the backs greater than $8,000 in what I’m calling that de facto elite tier, he’s the cheapest at $8,000. I love Ingram’s matchup this week. He will get the porous Buccaneers defense tomorrow, who was middle of the pack last year at 14th in rushing YPG allowed. That doesn’t jump off the page to me. What does jump off the page is that Ingram added 9 catches last week thanks to CJ Spiller being in active, leading the Saints in targets.
RB: Carlos Hyde. You may be thinking that this is cherry-picking after last week’s performance. Not true, and not even close. Hyde falls into my “cheaper” RB2 category, and my main reason for doing so is less about the staunch Pittsburgh run defense, who usually allows nothing to rushers, and more about what I saw last week. The diminutive Dion Lewis shredded Pittsburgh last week, and I think Hyde was the best player on the field. He averaged close to 10 YPC in the second half and I think his ownership percentage will be interesting.
WR: Odell Beckham Jr – OBJ has a monster matchup on his hands here, and the fact that he is $500 under the maximum price of Antonio Brown, to me, screams for potential upside. While it’s a bit concerning watching last game as the Giants struggled to move the ball, it broke OBJ’s streak of 90 yards or more in 9 straight. So why do I think anything will change tomorrow? For starters, he draws the Falcons tomorrow, who in 2014 were last against the pass at 279.9 YPG through the air. Secondly, if you watched that PHI-ATL game at all last week, didn’t you feel a little like Atlanta got lucky to walk away with the win? Keep in mind htat Sam Bradford hadn’t started a regular season game in the NFL in nearly 700 days (not a typo), so being rusty was somewhat expected. Bradford was 22-26 in the second half, which includes the interception that bounced off Jordan Matthews to end the game. The Falcons pass D is bad, and I think OBJ has a huge game tomorrow.
WR: Cole Beasley – I like laying out one stud and one cheap option here, so my cheap option is Beasley. At $5,700, I think the upside potential is huge against the Eagles tomorrow. He will line up in the slot, and I see him filling getting a ton of looks with Dez Bryant out and Terrence Williams and Jason Witten commanding the rest of the attention. Down the stretch in 2014, including the postseason, Beasley averaged about 5 receptions per game.
TE: Greg Olsen. Olsen slides down to a more reasonable price point of $6,000 tomorrow and I think that may be a steal. The Texans are one week from getting torched by Travis Kelce to the tune of 6-106-2. Am I suggesting Olsen is as good as Kelce? Absolutely not, but he is really good. Cam doesn’t have much to work with from the WR side of things and I think he continues to look for Olsen tomorrow.
TE: Tyler Eifert. Eifert is the 6th most expensive TE on FanDuel tomorrow at $5,900, but it’s very hard to ignore his team leading targets from last week. Coverage continues to roll to AJ Green, and the Chargers will do the same with a pair of excellent corners. That leaves the opportunity for Andy Dalton to look at the middle of the field and Eifert a LOT. Keep in mind that last week, the Chargers allowed 5-54 and a score to Eric Ebron.
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